- The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Milwaukee Brewers (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Saturday, June 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Brewers vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are ATS.
Brewers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Brewers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 60.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 22 away games (+10.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+9.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+9.40 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 38 games (+13.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+13.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+12.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+11.90 Units / 62% ROI)
Guardians vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Guardians vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
Guardians vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Freddy Peralta | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 68 games (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+7.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+1.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games (+17.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 9% (1/11) against Freddy Peralta — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of .679 (38 Total Bases / 56 ABs) with two-strikes over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .262 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (186/614) against Freddy Peralta this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of .679 (38 Total Bases / 56 ABs) with two-strikes over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when behind in the count in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .192 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .119 (26-for-218) against Luis Severino with two-strikes in 2022 — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .080 (2 GB hits out of 25 GBs) against Luis Severino with runners in scoring position in 2022 — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino allowed a BABIP of .239 in 2022 — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 94th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Brewers are 37-34 (.521) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Brewers are 23-13 (.639) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Brewers are 29-4 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Guardians are 26-80 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 26-62 (.295) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Guardians are 18-86 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 637 strikeouts in 2,405 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Brewers are batting just .147 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,177 strikeouts in 6,577 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,658 strikeouts in 8,975 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 45 of 665 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Brewers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Brewers pitchers have allowed 250 barreled balls since last season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 49 of 676 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 137 of 2,136 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- William Brennan (Guardians): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Cramps, Day-to-Day
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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