- The Brewers are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Milwaukee Brewers (-110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-110) on Sunday, June 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Brewers vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 39-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 36-40 ATS.
Brewers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -105 | -110 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -115 | -110 |
Brewers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+9.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 23 away games (+9.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 45 games (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+8.30 Units / 119% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+14.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+13.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 39 games (+12.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.70 Units / 45% ROI)
Guardians vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Guardians vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Guardians vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Corbin Burnes | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+10.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 70 games (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 away games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games (+17.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+8.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+5.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.55 Units / 34% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 33-43 against the Run Line (-14.95 Units / -15.58% ROI).
- 39-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -3.49% ROI
- 32-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -16.06% ROI
- 41-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 7.24% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 36-40 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -4.36% ROI).
- 37-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.6 Units / -9.95% ROI
- 28-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.45 Units / -24.49% ROI
- 44-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.4 Units / 15.99% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
34 of Corbin Burnes’ 86 strikeouts (40%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 62% of the time (234/378) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 66% of the time (248/378) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 58% of the time (83/142) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has located his pitches away 56% of the time (313/554) this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has thrown his cutter 45% of the time (466/1,043) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total CUT; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to June 8th — the longest active streak is 6.
31 of Aaron Civale’s 126 strikeouts (25%) have come on cutters since last season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 93rd Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Brewers are 11-9 (.550) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .432.
The Brewers are 37-35 (.514) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Brewers are 6-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Brewers are just 0-35 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Guardians are 26-80 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Guardians are 18-86 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Guardians are 10-23 (.303) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Guardians are 26-62 (.295) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .147 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
The Brewers are batting just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .301 (951 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,185 strikeouts in 6,610 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 45 of 673 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have 87 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Brewers pitchers have walked 1 of 53 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 137 of 2,145 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Cramps, Day-to-Day
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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