- The Guardians are -130 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson, 0.00 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac, 21.60 ERA
The Milwaukee Brewers (+110) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-130) on Friday, March 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Goodyear.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Brewers vs Guardians Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Brewers are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 2-2 ATS.
Brewers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -175 | O 11 -110 | +110 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | U 11 -110 | -130 |
Brewers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 53.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Lorenzo Cain has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.10 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan Lavastida has hit the Singles Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+8.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (+5.90 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 150 games (+8.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 73 games at home (+6.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games at home (+5.96 Units / 9% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 4-1 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 54.84% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 8.26% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -7.02% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.93% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 2-2 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 7.37% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -5.56% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -3.49% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .609 (98 Total Bases / 161 ABs) with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .402 — 0 Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed an OPS of 1.001 (194 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .720 — 0 Percentile.
Bryse Wilson allowed a slugging percentage of .542 (110 Total Bases / 203 ABs) on non-fastballs last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .367 — first Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (106 Total Bases / 178 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .409 — second Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Plesac allowed an OPS of 1.064 (99 PA’s) with runners in scoring position last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .719 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac allowed an OBP of .455 (99 PA’s) with runners in scoring position last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .316 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac had a strikeout rate of just 8% (8/101) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac located 60% of his pitches away (339/569) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Brewers are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are just 67-8 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Brewers are just 61-13 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 52-7 (.881) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Guardians are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters averaged 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers batted just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Brewers hitters struck out 440 times in 1,711 PA’s (26%) against LHP last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .343 against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .225 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
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