- The Brewers are -150 favorites vs the Mariners
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Milwaukee Brewers (-150) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+125) on Monday, April 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Brewers vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 11-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 8-8 ATS.
Brewers vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -105 | -150 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -135 | U 7.5 -115 | +125 |
Brewers vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 61.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 78% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.65 Units / 60% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+12.05 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 9 games (+9.65 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 58% ROI)
Mariners vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Tommy La Stella | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Mariners vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Tommy La Stella | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
Mariners vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tommy La Stella | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
Mariners vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Flexen | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 10-6 against the Run Line (+4.15 Units / 20.39% ROI).
- 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 39.73% ROI
- 7-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -17.42% ROI
- 9-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 7.47% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 8-8 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -2.66% ROI).
- 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -9.19% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.35 Units / 1.97% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.8 Units / -10.26% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 70% of the time (176/251) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 62% of the time (157/251) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
116 of Corbin Burnes’ 257 strikeouts (45%) have come on cutters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 67% of the time (1,264/1,901) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Flexen has located his fastball away 69% of the time (77/111) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 44% (32/73) against Chris Flexen in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 53% (16/30) against Chris Flexen when he’s behind in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Flexen has located his fastball away 69% of the time (77/111) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Brewers are 5-1 (.833) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Brewers are 9-2 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Brewers are 10-58 (.147) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Brewers are 11-4 (.733) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .544.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mariners are 101-94 (.518) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Mariners are 16-7 (.696) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 36-15 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 17-40 (.298) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 476 strikeouts in 1,826 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .385 (226 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have 13 extra-base hits out of 24 total hits (54%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Mariners are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 6 double plays in 123 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.44 (146.2 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hand, D10
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Gus Varland (Brewers): Hand, D15
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Oblique, Day-to-Day
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
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