Brewers vs Mariners Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 17

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 17, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Brewers are -150 favorites vs the Mariners
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen
  • Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW

The Milwaukee Brewers (-150) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+125) on Monday, April 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.

The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Brewers vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Brewers are 11-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 8-8 ATS.

Brewers vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 +110O 7.5 -105-150
Mariners +1.5 -135U 7.5 -115+125

Brewers vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 61.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.65 Units / 60% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+12.05 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 9 games (+9.65 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 58% ROI)

Mariners vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Teoscar Hernandez 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Tommy La Stella 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
J.P. Crawford 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000
Eugenio Suarez 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Kolten Wong 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Mariners vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Teoscar Hernandez 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Tommy La Stella 0.5 -150 0.5 +115
J.P. Crawford 0.5 -140 0.5 +105
Eugenio Suarez 0.5 -145 0.5 +110
Kolten Wong 0.5 -120 0.5 -105

Mariners vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Teoscar Hernandez 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Tommy La Stella 0.5 +260 0.5 -375
J.P. Crawford 0.5 +300 0.5 -450
Eugenio Suarez 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Kolten Wong 0.5 +300 0.5 -450

Mariners vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Flexen 4.5 -105 4.5 -125
Corbin Burnes 6.5 -145 6.5 +110
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.40 Units / 18% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 10-6 against the Run Line (+4.15 Units / 20.39% ROI).

  • 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 39.73% ROI
  • 7-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -17.42% ROI
  • 9-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 7.47% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 8-8 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -2.66% ROI).

  • 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -9.19% ROI
  • 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.35 Units / 1.97% ROI
  • 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.8 Units / -10.26% ROI

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 70% of the time (176/251) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 62% of the time (157/251) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

116 of Corbin Burnes’ 257 strikeouts (45%) have come on cutters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 67% of the time (1,264/1,901) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Chris Flexen has located his fastball away 69% of the time (77/111) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 44% (32/73) against Chris Flexen in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 53% (16/30) against Chris Flexen when he’s behind in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Chris Flexen has located his fastball away 69% of the time (77/111) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Brewers are 5-1 (.833) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .504.

The Brewers are 9-2 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.

The Brewers are 10-58 (.147) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Brewers are 11-4 (.733) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .544.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Mariners are 101-94 (.518) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.

The Mariners are 16-7 (.696) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 36-15 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 17-40 (.298) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.

Brewers hitters have 476 strikeouts in 1,826 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Brewers hitters have an OBP of .385 (226 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters have 13 extra-base hits out of 24 total hits (54%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

The Mariners are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mariners pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 6 double plays in 123 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.44 (146.2 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.

Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mariners vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hand, D10
  • Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
  • Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
  • Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
  • Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
  • Gus Varland (Brewers): Hand, D15
  • Luis Urías (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesse Winker (Brewers): Oblique, Day-to-Day
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
  • Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
  • Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.