- The Brewers are -115 favorites vs the Marlins
- Brewers vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | FDWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Brewers are 48-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 50-35 ATS.
Brewers vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Quinn Priester 6-2, 3.33 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 4-8, 7.01 ERA
Brewers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -105 | -125 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -115 | +105 |
Brewers vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+27.00 Units / 338% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.75 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+21.60 Units / 240% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.75 Units / 119% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+10.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.55 Units / 80% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 83 games (+13.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+12.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 40 away games (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 31 away games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+14.45 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 66 games (+14.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games at home (+13.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games at home (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+9.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 44-41 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -3.19% ROI).
- 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 5.69% ROI
- 35-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.45 Units / -20.18% ROI
- 49-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.6 Units / 11.15% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 50-35 against the Run Line (+9.35 Units / 8.48% ROI).
- 39-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 5.72% ROI
- 42-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -6.51% ROI
- 43-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -3.4% ROI
Marlins vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
Marlins vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Quinn Priester (MIL) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (135/234) against Quinn Priester this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .043 (1-for-23) against Quinn Priester in his last start — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .232 — 100th Percentile.
Quinn Priester has allowed a slugging percentage of just .375 (54 Total Bases / 144 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .553 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .154 (6-for-39) against Quinn Priester on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .359 (78-for-217) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (9/32) against Sandy Alcantara’s low breaking balls this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 20 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed 22 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 16-5 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .634.
The Brewers are 115-8 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Brewers are 18-3 (.857) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Brewers are 67-57 (.540) on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 71-14 (.835) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Marlins are just 36-63 (.364) after a win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 49-76 (.392) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have 28 extra-base hits out of 109 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .327 (979 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .650 (2,882 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
32% of Marlins’ plate appearances have been three-ball counts (28/88 PA’s) against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 37% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 57% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.38 (356.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
The Marlins have allowed 5.68 runs per game (233/41) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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