- The Brewers are +105 favorites vs the Mets
- Brewers vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Brewers / Mets TV Channel: SNY | FDWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-125) on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Brewers are 47-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 44-41 ATS.
Brewers vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 8-4, 2.93 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 8-4, 2.97 ERA
Brewers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +170 | O 8 +100 | +105 |
| Mets | +1.5 -210 | U 8 -120 | -125 |
Brewers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+18.00 Units / 360% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+14.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.90 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ronny Mauricio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+11.75 Units / 294% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.35 Units / 71% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 80 games (+16.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+14.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 37 away games (+13.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 away games (+12.27 Units / 26% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 games at home (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+9.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 85 games (+7.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 42-40 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -4.19% ROI).
- 47-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 6.91% ROI
- 33-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.35 Units / -21.83% ROI
- 48-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.9 Units / 12.98% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 44-41 against the Run Line (+2.09 Units / 1.9% ROI).
- 48-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.26% ROI
- 36-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.15 Units / -17.12% ROI
- 47-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.55 Units / 8.14% ROI
Mets vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has thrown just 44% of his pitches in the strike zone (705/1,607) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has thrown just 35% of his pitches in the strike zone (105/297) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 56% (167/297) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has thrown just 38% of his pitches in the strike zone (121/317) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .117 (7-for-60) against Clay Holmes with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Clay Holmes has allowed an OBP of just .211 (71 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .307 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .133 (22-for-166) against Clay Holmes with two-strikes this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 87th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are 17-2 (.895) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Brewers are 18-8 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 114-8 (.934) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Brewers are 51-13 (.797) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets are 22-10 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets are 14-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Mets are 29-12 (.707) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .546.
The Mets are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 27 extra-base hits out of 106 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have struck out in just 14% of their PA’s over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have chased just 19% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 46% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .172 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .213 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,012 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .219 with runners on base since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 56% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 12% of batters over the last 14 days — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 41% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 6.34 (110.2 IP) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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