- The Mets are -155 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Mets TV Channel: SNY | FDWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+130) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-155) on Thursday, July 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Brewers are 48-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 45-42 ATS.
Brewers vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 6-2, 3.30 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 5-4, 3.32 ERA
Brewers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -170 | O 8 +100 | +130 |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -120 | -155 |
Brewers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 58.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+28.00 Units / 400% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.90 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Walks Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 82 games (+13.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+11.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 away games (+11.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+9.92 Units / 20% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 43 games at home (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games at home (+9.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+9.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 43-41 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -4.08% ROI).
- 48-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 6.68% ROI
- 35-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.35 Units / -19.26% ROI
- 48-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.6 Units / 10.21% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 45-42 against the Run Line (+2.09 Units / 1.85% ROI).
- 49-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -0.44% ROI
- 38-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.15 Units / -14.67% ROI
- 47-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.25 Units / 5.53% ROI
Mets vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
Mets vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (MIL) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 59% (1,306/2,224) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 59% (1,676/2,819) in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 49% (469/961) when behind in the count in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has thrown just 42% of his pitches in the strike zone (1,632/3,836) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (158/280) against David Peterson this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 94th Percentile.
12 of David Peterson’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 5th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 94th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (107/540) against David Peterson this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 14th Percentile.
39% of David Peterson’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — ninth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are 16-5 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .632.
The Brewers are 52-14 (.788) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Brewers are 141-107 (.569) since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers were 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 22-10 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets are 28-20 (.583) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Mets are 44-11 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 28 extra-base hits out of 109 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Brewers are batting .241 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .174.
Brewers hitters have struck out in just 15% of their PA’s over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .177 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mets are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .213 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 56% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Brewers pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 12% of batters over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 6.49 (111.0 IP) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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