- The Mets (41-23) are -135 favorites vs the Brewers (35-29)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (1-5), 3.90 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill (4-2), 4.50 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Milwaukee Brewers (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Thursday, June 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Brewers vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 35-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 38-26 ATS.
Brewers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -115 | -135 |
Brewers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 76.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.15 Units / 84% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+12.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 27 games at home (+5.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Mets vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Mets vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ashby | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+5.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+13.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 64 games (+13.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+8.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.20 Units / 49% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 26-38 against the Run Line (-13.5 Units / -18.04% ROI).
- 35-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -6.55% ROI
- 31-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -2.38% ROI
- 30-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -3 Units / -4.3% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 38-26 against the Run Line (+13.5 Units / 17.48% ROI).
- 41-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.25 Units / 14.8% ROI
- 33-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 3.83% ROI
- 27-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.55 Units / -12.36% ROI
Aaron Ashby: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 70% (79/113) against Aaron Ashby this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (89/138) against Aaron Ashby this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (14/113) against Aaron Ashby this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (39/62) against Aaron Ashby in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Tylor Megill: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has allowed a just .272 SLG vs right-handed batters (fourth best)– 95th Percentile and .480 vs left-handed batters this season (sixth worst among qualified SPs)– 11th Percentile.
Luis Severino has struck out 37% (52/140) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of 69% (20 SO in 29 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 35% (102/287) against Luis Severino this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are just 30-3 (.909) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .926.
The Brewers are just 3-13 (.188) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Brewers are 3-23 (.115) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Brewers are 4-24 (.143) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Yankees are 18-9 (.667) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Yankees are 28-7 (.800) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Yankees are 2-10 (.167) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Yankees are 29-1 (.967) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .690 (2,243 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Brewers are batting just .226 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Brewers are batting just .224 at home since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are slugging .613 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 80% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 70% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have won 60% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 32 of 562 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.8 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
Mets vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
- Colin Holderman (Mets): right shoulder, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Kolten Wong (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10
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