- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Milwaukee Brewers (+120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-145) on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Brewers vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 41-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 30-49 ATS.
Brewers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +120 |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -115 | -145 |
Brewers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 22 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 48 games (+13.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+11.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+10.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+13.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+12.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+10.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 29% ROI)
Mets vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mets vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Mets vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
| Wade Miley | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+11.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+8.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 73 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 away games (+2.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.10 Units / 53% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 34-45 against the Run Line (-16.5 Units / -16.53% ROI).
- 41-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.87% ROI
- 33-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.7 Units / -15.6% ROI
- 42-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 6.86% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 30-49 against the Run Line (-25.8 Units / -25.54% ROI).
- 36-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.7 Units / -21.2% ROI
- 35-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.3 Units / -12.99% ROI
- 42-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 3.91% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (36/260) against Wade Miley this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Wade Miley has thrown his cutter 59% of the time (624/1,059) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CUT; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .243 (25-for-103) against Wade Miley in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .337 — 98th Percentile.
Wade Miley has allowed an OPS of just .406 (38 PA’s) — 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .698 — 94th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has a strike rate of just 58% (227/393) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 44 of 332 batters (13%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strikeout rate of 54% (93 SO in 171 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strike rate of just 60% (794/1,324) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are 6-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .778.
The Brewers are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Brewers are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 24-13 (.649) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets are just 24-15 (.615) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Mets are just 11-14 (.440) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
The Mets are just 0-35 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Mets are 121-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .647 (702 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Brewers are batting just .227 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 1,279 strikeouts in 6,361 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (4,925 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (6,361 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .328 (9,145 PA’s) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 46 of 692 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 30 of 228 batters (13%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Cramps, Day-to-Day
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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