- The Mets are -190 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer
- Watch the game on SNY
The Milwaukee Brewers (+155) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-190) on Thursday, June 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Brewers vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 42-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 30-50 ATS.
Brewers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -130 | O 8.5 -115 | +155 |
| Mets | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -105 | -190 |
Brewers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 77.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+16.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 49 games (+14.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+12.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+12.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.30 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+12.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+12.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.55 Units / 34% ROI)
Mets vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Mets vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Mets vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -130 |
| Adrian Houser | 2.5 -145 | 2.5 +110 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 games (+9.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+7.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+4.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+2.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.10 Units / 31% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 35-45 against the Run Line (-15.5 Units / -15.3% ROI).
- 42-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -0.5% ROI
- 33-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.8 Units / -16.65% ROI
- 43-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.9 Units / 7.92% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 30-50 against the Run Line (-26.8 Units / -26.27% ROI).
- 36-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.25 Units / -22.28% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -14.07% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.4 Units / 5% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (60/424) against Adrian Houser since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (500/708) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has a strike rate of just 58% (679/1,167) vs left-handed batters since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (55/334) against Adrian Houser this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of 43% (125/290) against Max Scherzer on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed a .563 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth worst)– ninth Percentile and just .265 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (ninth best among qualified SPs)– 88th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has walked 3 of 126 batters (2%) over the last 30 days (5 games) — best among in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (211/290) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are 6-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Brewers are 11-7 (.611) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Brewers are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets are just 11-14 (.440) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
The Mets are just 24-15 (.615) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Mets are 120-6 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mets are 121-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Brewers are batting just .214 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .640 (732 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 566 strikeouts in 2,802 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have just 1,287 strikeouts in 6,413 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are batting .259 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .747 (4,925 PA’s) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 47 of 709 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 9 of 212 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have 87 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 58% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have walked 30 of 231 batters (13%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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