- The Brewers are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Milwaukee Brewers (-160) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Tuesday, August 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Brewers vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 57-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 58-49 ATS.
Brewers vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -105 | -160 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -115 | +135 |
Brewers vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 69.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+15.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+13.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+15.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+15.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 45% ROI)
Nationals vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Nationals vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Nationals vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Freddy Peralta | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 85 games (+10.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 101 games (+10.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 85 games (+10.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games (+6.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 away games (+3.60 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 89 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 101 games (+6.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 49-58 against the Run Line (-13.3 Units / -9.92% ROI).
- 57-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 1.18% ROI
- 45-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.45 Units / -16.37% ROI
- 58-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.75 Units / 7.5% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 58-49 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 1.45% ROI).
- 45-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 6.69% ROI
- 51-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.5 Units / -4.63% ROI
- 51-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -3.81% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .111 (5 GB hits out of 45 GBs) against Freddy Peralta with runners on base this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — 98th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 62% (13 SO in 21 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — best in NL over the last week; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 35% (147/415) against Freddy Peralta this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 62% (1,182/1,907) this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 10th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
20 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 36 of 257 left-handed batters (14%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .388 (19-for-49) against Josiah Gray on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — first Percentile.
20 of Josiah Gray’s 70 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 95th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
keys to the game – away
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
keys to the game – home
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .221 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .462 (2,216 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Brewers hitters have 252 strikeouts in 943 PA’s (27%) against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 508 strikeouts in 2,709 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 35% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Nationals are just 2-10 (.167) against the run line (-57.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 41% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Paolo Espino (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D15
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
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