- The Brewers are -210 favorites vs the Nationals
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Milwaukee Brewers (-210) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+170) on Monday, July 31, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Brewers vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 57-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 57-49 ATS.
Brewers vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 -125 | O 8.5 -105 | -210 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -115 | +170 |
Brewers vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 79.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+15.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+10.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 47 games (+15.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+14.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
Nationals vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Nationals vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Nationals vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Corbin Burnes | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+9.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 100 games (+9.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 games (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+4.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 88 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+6.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 100 games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games (+3.60 Units / 11% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 49-57 against the Run Line (-12.05 Units / -9.07% ROI).
- 57-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 2.82% ROI
- 45-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.25 Units / -15.52% ROI
- 57-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.75 Units / 6.7% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 57-49 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 0.65% ROI).
- 44-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 5.14% ROI
- 51-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -3.66% ROI
- 50-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.45 Units / -4.71% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 66% of the time (280/425) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (112/189) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 62% of the time (812/1,315) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 61% of the time (116/189) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to June 27th — Taj Bradley has the longest active streak at 7.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 7% (10/154) against Jake Irvin this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 20% (26/127) against Jake Irvin with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 37% (331/899) against Jake Irvin in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 10-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Brewers are 30-15 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-45 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Brewers are 22-21 (.512) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are just 34-64 (.347) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 30-145 (.171) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Nationals are just 99-169 (.369) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 30-50 (.375) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .221 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .462 (2,198 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Brewers hitters have 692 strikeouts in 2,650 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 750 strikeouts in 3,982 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 169 walks in 2,674 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Nationals are just 2-10 (.167) against the run line (-57.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 41% of their games this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Paolo Espino (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D15
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
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