- The Brewers (33-26) are -190 favorites vs the Nationals (21-38)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (1-4), 3.13 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (3-4), 4.877 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Milwaukee Brewers (-190) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+155) on Friday, June 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Brewers vs Nationals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 33-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 23-36 ATS.
Brewers vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 -115 | O 8 +100 | -190 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -105 | U 8 -120 | +155 |
Brewers vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 59.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 10 away games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 39 games (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games (+15.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 39 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 24-35 against the Run Line (-12.35 Units / -17.86% ROI).
- 33-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -4.52% ROI
- 28-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -3.8% ROI
- 28-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -2.95% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 23-36 against the Run Line (-18.7 Units / -25.67% ROI).
- 21-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -16.21% ROI
- 30-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 1.98% ROI
- 26-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.6 Units / -10.22% ROI
Aaron Ashby: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (74/114) against Aaron Ashby this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (67/94) against Aaron Ashby this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 57% of Aaron Ashby’s pitches in the zone (228/398) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of just .103 (18/174) against Aaron Ashby this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .197 — 100th Percentile.
Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (232/666) against Erick Fedde in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (20/55) against Erick Fedde on non-fastballs this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (658/1,236) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 29% (45/155) against Erick Fedde with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 40% — second Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 3-20 (.130) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Brewers are just 3-12 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Brewers are 107-13 (.892) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Brewers are 14-4 (.778) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are just 4-36 (.100) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 9-18 (.333) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 4-134 (.029) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Nationals are just 21-35 (.375) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (643 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .309 (2,182 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting .274 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Nationals hitters have just 114 strikeouts in 659 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .325 (5,817 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .301 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 6.01 (271.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D10
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Shoulder/Neck, D10
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Kolten Wong (Brewers): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D15
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10
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