- The Brewers (33-28) are -125 favorites vs the Nationals (23-38)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Jason Alexander (0-0), 2.25 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-0), 2.025 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Milwaukee Brewers (-125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+105) on Sunday, June 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Brewers vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 33-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 25-36 ATS.
Brewers vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +130 | O 9.5 -115 | -125 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | U 9.5 -105 | +105 |
Brewers vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 67.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+6.95 Units / 80% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+6.30 Units / 79% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 78% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 86% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.50 Units / 78% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+6.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 48 games (+17.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 41 games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 24-37 against the Run Line (-14.5 Units / -20.34% ROI).
- 33-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -7.84% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.73% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -5.94% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 25-36 against the Run Line (-16.7 Units / -22.24% ROI).
- 23-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -7 Units / -11.04% ROI
- 32-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 4.86% ROI
- 26-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -12.98% ROI
Jason Alexander: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 60% (12/20) against Jason Alexander — tied for 12th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents batted .350 (7-for-20) against Jason Alexander — 13th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .246 — 10th Percentile.
The hardest ball hit off of Jason Alexander was 115.1 MPH — 3rd hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.6
Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (13/49) against Paolo Espino this season — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Paolo Espino has walked 2 of 64 right-handed batters (3%) this season — tied for 10th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 91st Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (11/78) against Paolo Espino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Paolo Espino has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.1 innings pitched — Luis Garcia has the longest active streak at 23.1.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are just 3-13 (.188) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Brewers are 3-22 (.120) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Brewers are just 28-3 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .926.
The Brewers are 4-23 (.148) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are just 23-35 (.397) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 4-36 (.100) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 4-134 (.029) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Nationals are 19-2 (.905) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .215 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .351 (2,566 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Nationals hitters have just 120 strikeouts in 719 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals are batting .273 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.98 (271.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .333 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Nationals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D10
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Shoulder/Neck, D10
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Kolten Wong (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D15
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10
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