Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 14

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 14, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres are -165 favorites vs the Brewers
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Milwaukee Brewers (+135) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-165) on Friday, April 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Brewers vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Brewers are 9-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 7-7 ATS.

Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers+1.5 -145O 8.5 +100+135
Padres -1.5 +120U 8.5 -120-165

Brewers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Brewers vs Padres and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 104% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 67% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.45 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Austin Nola has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+7.30 Units / 119% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Austin Nola has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.80 Units / 92% ROI)

Padres vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jesse Winker 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Austin Nola 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Christian Yelich 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
William Contreras 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Padres vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jesse Winker 0.5 -165 0.5 +125
Austin Nola 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Christian Yelich 0.5 -175 0.5 +135
William Contreras 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -140 0.5 +105

Padres vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jesse Winker 0.5 +220 0.5 -300
Austin Nola 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Christian Yelich 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
William Contreras 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +240 0.5 -350

Padres vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Michael Wacha 5.5 +105 5.5 -140
Eric Lauer 4.5 +110 4.5 -145
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.70 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.10 Units / 20% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 8-5 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 23.82% ROI).

  • 9-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 34.19% ROI
  • 5-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -27.3% ROI
  • 8-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 19% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 7-7 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -9.21% ROI).

  • 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -13.55% ROI
  • 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -19.18% ROI
  • 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 10.7% ROI

Hitters have swung at 34% of Eric Lauer’s breaking pitches (183/537) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (124/393) against Eric Lauer since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Eric Lauer has a first-pitch strike rate of just 49% (21/43) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.

Eric Lauer has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (60/124) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 98th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Michael Wacha has allowed an OBP of just .043 (23 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .254 — 97th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has located his breaking pitches away 77% of the time (13/17) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .148 (4-for-27) against Michael Wacha this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 87th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (637/1,290) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Brewers were 6-62 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

The Brewers are 25-28 (.472) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.

The Brewers were 25-28 (.472) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.

The Brewers are 65-16 (.802) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Padres are just 23-35 (.397) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2021 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.

The Padres are 33-13 (.717) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .658.

The Padres were 31-9 (.775) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Padres are 23-3 (.885) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Brewers hitters have 473 strikeouts in 1,818 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Brewers hitters chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.

Padres hitters have 6 extra-base hits out of 10 total hits (60%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Padres hitters have just 32 strikeouts in 190 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres hitters are slugging .238 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 2.82 (115.0 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres pitchers have walked 58 of 537 batters (11%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Padres pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
  • José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
  • David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
  • Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
  • Luis Urías (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
  • Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
  • Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.