- The Padres are -165 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Milwaukee Brewers (+135) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-165) on Friday, April 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Brewers vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 9-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 7-7 ATS.
Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 +100 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -120 | -165 |
Brewers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 104% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+7.30 Units / 119% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 87% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.80 Units / 92% ROI)
Padres vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
Padres vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
| Eric Lauer | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 35% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.10 Units / 20% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 8-5 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 23.82% ROI).
- 9-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 34.19% ROI
- 5-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -27.3% ROI
- 8-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 19% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 7-7 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -9.21% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -13.55% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -19.18% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 10.7% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 34% of Eric Lauer’s breaking pitches (183/537) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (124/393) against Eric Lauer since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Eric Lauer has a first-pitch strike rate of just 49% (21/43) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Eric Lauer has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (60/124) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has allowed an OBP of just .043 (23 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .254 — 97th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has located his breaking pitches away 77% of the time (13/17) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .148 (4-for-27) against Michael Wacha this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 87th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (637/1,290) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers were 6-62 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Brewers are 25-28 (.472) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Brewers were 25-28 (.472) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Brewers are 65-16 (.802) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 23-35 (.397) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2021 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are 33-13 (.717) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .658.
The Padres were 31-9 (.775) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Padres are 23-3 (.885) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have 473 strikeouts in 1,818 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have 6 extra-base hits out of 10 total hits (60%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Padres hitters have just 32 strikeouts in 190 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters are slugging .238 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 2.82 (115.0 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres pitchers have walked 58 of 537 batters (11%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Padres pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
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