- The Padres are -150 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Milwaukee Brewers (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Saturday, April 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Brewers vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 10-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 7-8 ATS.
Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 +100 | +125 |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | U 7.5 -120 | -150 |
Brewers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 73.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.50 Units / 101% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.35 Units / 70% ROI)
- Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.65 Units / 74% ROI)
- Mike Brosseau has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.10 Units / 86% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Padres vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Joey Wiemer | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Joey Wiemer | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
Padres vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Wiemer | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
Padres vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +125 |
| Seth Lugo | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 -105 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 9% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 9-5 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 27.75% ROI).
- 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.8 Units / 41.21% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -19.17% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.45 Units / 9.57% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 7-8 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -13.63% ROI).
- 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -20.05% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -12.13% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 2.48% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .092 (45-for-490) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 20 AB’s against Freddy Peralta when ahead in the count this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .201 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 43% (118 SO in 271 PAs) versus the bottom of the order since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .286 (93 Total Bases / 325 ABs) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .399 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 75% (15/20) against Seth Lugo this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 72% (13/18) against Seth Lugo in two-strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (23/34) against Seth Lugo this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 56% of the time (23/41) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 31-26 (.544) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Brewers are 27-29 (.482) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Brewers are 10-3 (.769) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .549.
The Brewers are 50-32 (.610) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are 25-26 (.490) when underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
The Padres are just 3-64 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 49-39 (.557) on the road since the 2022 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Padres are 23-3 (.885) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .385 (226 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Brewers are batting just .222 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Brewers are batting just .228 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .905 (226 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .743.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of just .293 (286 PA’s) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Padres hitters have just 37 strikeouts in 213 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .677 (3,241 PA’s) at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Padres hitters have an OBP of just .250 (141 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (124.0 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Padres pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres pitchers have walked 12 of 62 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have picked-off 1 runner from first base this season — 2nd best in MLB.
Padres vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
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