- The Padres are -175 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Milwaukee Brewers (+145) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-175) on Sunday, April 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Brewers vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 10-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 8-8 ATS.
Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -140 | O 8 -105 | +145 |
| Padres | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -115 | -175 |
Brewers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.40 Units / 99% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 56% ROI)
- Mike Brosseau has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Mike Brosseau has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+15.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 86% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)
Padres vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -130 |
| Wade Miley | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -185 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+7.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+4.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 9-6 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 16.62% ROI).
- 10-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 33.14% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2 Units / -11.98% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.3 Units / 1.84% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 8-8 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -6.03% ROI).
- 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.4 Units / -14.53% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.05 Units / -5.85% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -4.34% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 64% of the time (25/39) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 58% of the time (345/592) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (330/592) since the 2020 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Wade Miley has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (406/896) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has allowed an OPS of just .384 (462 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .462 — 91st Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .188 (462 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (70-for-444) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (9-for-99) against Yu Darvish on fastballs away since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 18-10 (.643) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 27-29 (.482) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Brewers are 10-58 (.147) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .120.
The Brewers are 5-4 (.556) on the road this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are 4-3 (.571) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Padres are 34-15 (.694) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .651.
The Padres are 18-19 (.486) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Padres are 78-8 (.907) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .880.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .385 (226 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters are slugging .520 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging .237 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Padres hitters have 4 home runs in lefty-lefty matchups this season — tied for most in MLB.
Padres hitters have drawn 45 walks in 382 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are averaging 3.99 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Brewers pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Padres pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 13 of 62 batters (21%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Padres pitchers have walked 17 of 143 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
- Gus Varland (Brewers): Hand/Jaw, Day-to-Day
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Oblique, Day-to-Day
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
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