- The Padres are -150 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson, 0.00 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Brent Honeywell Jr., 6.35 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Milwaukee Brewers (+125) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Saturday, March 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Peoria.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Brewers vs Padres Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Brewers are 7-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 7-9 ATS.
Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -150 | O 11 -120 | +125 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 11 +100 | -150 |
Brewers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 55.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.65 Units / 120% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Matthew Batten has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.75 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (+5.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+2.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 games (+3.25 Units / 8% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 9-6 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 9.56% ROI).
- 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -15.17% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -36.83% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.7 Units / 28.66% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 7-9 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -10.71% ROI).
- 6-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -28.39% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -9.55% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 3.16% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .516 (190 Total Bases / 368 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .386 — third Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .609 (98 Total Bases / 161 ABs) with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .402 — 0 Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (51/336) against Bryse Wilson when he’s behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has not allowed a hit to any of the last 32 batters he’s faced after reaching two strikes. — Ryan Pressly has the longest active streak at 68.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brent Honeywell has limited playing time.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are 9-57 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Brewers are 46-35 (.568) at home last season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are just 8-151 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have 810 strikeouts in 3,250 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Padres vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
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