- The Phillies are -210 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Julio Teheran
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Milwaukee Brewers (+170) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-210) on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Brewers vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 52-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 39-54 ATS.
Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -110 | O 9.5 -120 | +170 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | U 9.5 +100 | -210 |
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 78.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+16.65 Units / 68% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+10.55 Units / 46% ROI)
Phillies vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Phillies vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Phillies vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +120 |
| Julio Teheran | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+10.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 72 games (+6.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 away games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 76 games (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+7.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+4.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games (+3.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 44-50 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -8.48% ROI).
- 52-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 4.87% ROI
- 41-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -12.97% ROI
- 49-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.1 Units / 4% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-54 against the Run Line (-24.3 Units / -20.28% ROI).
- 51-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -1.67% ROI
- 37-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -13.23% ROI
- 46-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.7 Units / 5.59% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (25/141) against Julio Teheran this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Julio Teheran has allowed a BABIP of .239 this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .295 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .121 (4-for-33) against Julio Teheran on fastballs away this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (14/83) against Julio Teheran on fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (124/329) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (737/1,067) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 69% (20/29) against Aaron Nola with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 74% (145/195) over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Brewers are 12-8 (.600) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Brewers are just 7-15 (.318) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Brewers are 26-14 (.650) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 23-92 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 39-3 (.929) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Phillies are 17-92 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Phillies are 20-6 (.769) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .224 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Phillies hitters have drawn 70 walks in 1,121 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Phillies are batting .265 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 37% over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 57 of 837 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (2,288 batted balls) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Phillies vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Harrison (Phillies): Wrist, D10
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
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