- The Phillies are -145 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Milwaukee Brewers (+120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-145) on Wednesday, July 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Brewers vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 52-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 39-55 ATS.
Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -105 | +120 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | U 9 -115 | -145 |
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 73.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+12.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.65 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+11.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Blake Perkins | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Phillies vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+8.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 73 games (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 away games (+7.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 37 games (+14.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 77 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+5.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 36 games (+4.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 45-50 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -7.55% ROI).
- 52-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 3.97% ROI
- 41-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.55 Units / -13.8% ROI
- 50-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 4.92% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-55 against the Run Line (-25.3 Units / -20.94% ROI).
- 52-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -0.88% ROI
- 37-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -14.07% ROI
- 47-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.7 Units / 6.5% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .213 (10-for-47) against Colin Rea when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .344 — 99th Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of 1.104 (68 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .742 — second Percentile.
79% of Colin Rea’s non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 93rd Percentile.
Colin Rea has walked 10 of 68 batters (15%) with runners in scoring position this season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 9% — seventh Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 24th — the longest active streak is 5.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (19/32) against Cristopher Sanchez — 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 94th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 34% of Cristopher Sanchez’s pitches (27/79) over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (18/31) against Cristopher Sanchez — 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 91st Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Brewers are 10-4 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 26-14 (.650) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 7-16 (.304) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 43-25 (.632) after a road win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Phillies are 21-6 (.778) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .609.
The Phillies are 40-3 (.930) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Phillies are 32-5 (.865) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .784.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .149 with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .357 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 64 extra-base hits out of 191 total hits (just 34%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 70 walks in 1,121 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies are batting .285 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Phillies hitter’ K:BB ratio is 4.1 against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.7.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 58 of 845 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 153 of 2,266 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Phillies have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Phillies vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Harrison (Phillies): Wrist, D10
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
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