- The – are favorites vs the –
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Milwaukee Brewers () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Thursday, July 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Brewers vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 53-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 39-56 ATS.
Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 52.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 47 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.00 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+16.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+10.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 72% ROI)
Phillies vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Trea Turner | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Phillies vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Trea Turner | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
Phillies vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trea Turner | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Phillies vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +100 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games (+11.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 away games (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+6.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 38 games (+13.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 78 games (+11.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 37 games (+4.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+4.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 46-50 against the Run Line (-8.05 Units / -6.63% ROI).
- 53-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 5% ROI
- 41-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.7 Units / -14.73% ROI
- 51-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.1 Units / 5.83% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-56 against the Run Line (-26.3 Units / -21.58% ROI).
- 52-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -1.97% ROI
- 37-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.75 Units / -15.01% ROI
- 48-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.7 Units / 7.39% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 61% of the time (105/171) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 62% of the time (783/1,264) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (256/407) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 58% of the time (99/171) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .194 (6 Total Bases / 31 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — 96th Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has struck out just 19% (42/220) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 16th Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 61% (1,000/1,635) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 58% (278/480) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 11-4 (.733) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 27-14 (.659) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-39 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Brewers are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 43-25 (.632) after a road win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Phillies are 23-92 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 42-1 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Phillies are 64-29 (.688) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .369 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Brewers are batting just .228 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Brewers hitters have 681 strikeouts in 2,612 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 286 strikeouts in 1,124 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Phillies are batting .261 at home since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 70 walks in 1,124 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the past seven days (5 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (10 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 246 of 3,700 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Harrison (Phillies): Wrist, D10
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
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