- The Brewers (57-45) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (40-62)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (8-4), 2.31 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (1-6), 6.30 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Milwaukee Brewers (-275) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) on Tuesday, August 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 57-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 52-50 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -2.5 +105 | O 7.5 -105 | -275 |
| Pirates | +2.5 -130 | U 7.5 -115 | +220 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 37 away games (+11.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 41 games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 41 games at home (+13.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 35 games at home (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 29 games at home (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +105 |
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryse Wilson | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -165 |
| Corbin Burnes | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 48 of their last 82 games (+15.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 82 games (+8.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+3.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 36 away games (+3.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 93 games (+10.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 38 games (+9.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 18 games at home (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 44-58 against the Run Line (-17.25 Units / -13.96% ROI).
- 57-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -4.79% ROI
- 51-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 0.62% ROI
- 46-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.35 Units / -8.33% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 52-50 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -4.13% ROI).
- 40-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -5.31% ROI
- 42-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.8 Units / -15.01% ROI
- 54-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.85 Units / 6.95% ROI
Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 45% (62/139) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 65% of the time (103/158) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 57% of the time (258/452) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 68% of the time (661/975) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Bryse Wilson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has allowed an OPS of .876 (256 PA’s) this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .702 — fifth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 10% (11/106) against Bryse Wilson when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 16% (40 SO in 256 PAs) this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 22% — seventh Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed an OBP of .365 (255 PA’s) this season — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .305 — fifth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are just 5-22 (.185) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Brewers are 49-18 (.731) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Brewers are 94-24 (.797) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Brewers are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 83-22 (.790) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 3-23 (.115) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Pirates are just 38-52 (.422) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Pirates are just 50-113 (.307) on the road since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers have answered-back in 40% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Brewers are batting just .316 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .376 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .295 (3,031 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 15 of 346 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 215 of 2,300 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 14 days (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
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