Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 01, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (44-34) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (31-45)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (6-4), 2.41 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (2-1), 2.76 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Milwaukee Brewers (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 44-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 36-40 ATS.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 -115O 7.5 -110-200
Pirates +1.5 -105U 7.5 -110+165

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 57.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+15.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+6.25 Units / 125% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+6.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 17 games at home (+5.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Hoy Jun Park has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)

Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000

Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -125 0.5 -115
Josh VanMeter 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +250 0.5 -375

Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Roansy Contreras 4.5 +105 4.5 -145
Corbin Burnes 7.5 -150 7.5 +105
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+13.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+9.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 away games (+4.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 75 games (+8.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 35 games (+5.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 67 games (+5.00 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.75 Units / 70% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 34-44 against the Run Line (-11.25 Units / -11.99% ROI).

  • 44-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -2.27% ROI
  • 39-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 1.96% ROI
  • 34-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -9.63% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 36-40 against the Run Line (-9.15 Units / -9.57% ROI).

  • 31-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -2.93% ROI
  • 32-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.4 Units / -11.3% ROI
  • 38-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 2.96% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 40% (165/417) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 69% of the time (83/120) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (631/1,028) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (232/414) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Roansy Contreras has a strikeout rate of 53% (8 SO in 15 PAs) in late innings this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (36/102) against Roansy Contreras with runners in scoring position this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 94th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 1 double play in 26 opportunities (4%) this season — tied for 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 10% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 43% (54/124) against Roansy Contreras on sliders this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 96th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are just 3-16 (.158) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.

The Brewers are 25-19 (.568) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

The Brewers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 3-27 (.100) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 75-20 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 21-5 (.808) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.

The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Pirates are just 13-25 (.342) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.

Brewers hitters are slugging .956 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.

Brewers hitters have been successful in 76% of their bunt for hit attempts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Brewers are batting just .227 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .660 (2,652 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Pirates hitters have a groundball batting average of just .195 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 199 of 2,066 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 887 of 9,075 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 60 of 560 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (991.0 IP) on the road since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.

Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.