- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Milwaukee Brewers (-145) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) on Saturday, July 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 43-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 40-41 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +115 | O 8 -105 | -145 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | U 8 -115 | +120 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 66.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 50 games (+13.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+10.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 62% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+7.95 Units / 76% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Johan Oviedo | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 76 games (+8.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+7.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 53 games (+16.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+5.35 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 36-46 against the Run Line (-15.5 Units / -14.97% ROI).
- 43-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.15% ROI
- 34-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.85 Units / -16.31% ROI
- 44-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 7.61% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 40-41 against the Run Line (-11 Units / -10.21% ROI).
- 39-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 1.59% ROI
- 39-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -1.79% ROI
- 37-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -6.34% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 57% of the time (88/153) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 62% of the time (738/1,193) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 59% of the time (91/153) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
36 of Corbin Burnes’ 89 strikeouts (40%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has not walked any of the 50 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has allowed a slugging percentage of .628 (27 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — first Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (222/394) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.
10 of Johan Oviedo’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 7th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 90th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 6-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Brewers are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 32-26 (.552) after a road loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 11-7 (.611) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 17-25 (.405) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Pirates are 10-5 (.667) after a loss as favorites since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Pirates are just 16-25 (.390) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have 647 strikeouts in 2,453 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .297 (2,810 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Pirates hitters have 704 strikeouts in 2,810 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 48 of 727 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 4 of 116 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Brewers have won 35% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 872 of 9,332 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 306 of 3,531 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Back, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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