- The Brewers (44-34) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (31-45)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (6-4), 2.41 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (2-1), 2.76 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Milwaukee Brewers (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 44-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 36-40 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 -115 | O 7.5 -110 | -200 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -105 | U 7.5 -110 | +165 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 57.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+15.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+6.25 Units / 125% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+6.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 17 games at home (+5.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Hoy Jun Park has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roansy Contreras | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -145 |
| Corbin Burnes | 7.5 -150 | 7.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+13.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+9.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 away games (+4.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 75 games (+8.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 35 games (+5.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 67 games (+5.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.75 Units / 70% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 34-44 against the Run Line (-11.25 Units / -11.99% ROI).
- 44-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -2.27% ROI
- 39-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 1.96% ROI
- 34-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -9.63% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 36-40 against the Run Line (-9.15 Units / -9.57% ROI).
- 31-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -2.93% ROI
- 32-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.4 Units / -11.3% ROI
- 38-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 2.96% ROI
Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 40% (165/417) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 69% of the time (83/120) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (631/1,028) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (232/414) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras has a strikeout rate of 53% (8 SO in 15 PAs) in late innings this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (36/102) against Roansy Contreras with runners in scoring position this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 94th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 1 double play in 26 opportunities (4%) this season — tied for 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 10% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 43% (54/124) against Roansy Contreras on sliders this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 96th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are just 3-16 (.158) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Brewers are 25-19 (.568) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Brewers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 3-27 (.100) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .077.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 75-20 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 21-5 (.808) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Pirates are just 13-25 (.342) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging .956 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Brewers hitters have been successful in 76% of their bunt for hit attempts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Brewers are batting just .227 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .660 (2,652 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Pirates hitters have a groundball batting average of just .195 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 199 of 2,066 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 887 of 9,075 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 60 of 560 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (991.0 IP) on the road since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
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