• The Brewers are -130 favorites vs the Pirates
• Brewers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
• Brewers / Pirates TV Channel: BRTV | SNPT

The Milwaukee Brewers (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on July 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 pm in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Brewers are 59-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 46-46 ATS.

Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

• Brewers starting pitcher: Shane Drohan 4-2, 2.96 ERA
• Pirates starting pitcher: Bubba Chandler 3-8, 4.80 ERA

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:

• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+18.00 Units / 200% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.95 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jake Bauers has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.25 Units / 39% ROI)
• Garrett Mitchell has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Garrett Mitchell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+18.00 Units / 200% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.85 Units / 38% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+9.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Brewers Best Bets Today:

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 30 away games (+11.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+8.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+4.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 50 games (+2.65 Units / 5% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+14.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games at home (+2.25 Units / 10% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 51-42 against the Run Line (+16.25 Units / 15.05% ROI).

• 59-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.6 Units / 9.49% ROI
• 41-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.85 Units / -13.53% ROI
• 50-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 4.93% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 46-46 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.51% ROI).

• 47-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -7.4% ROI
• 54-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.45 Units / 12.99% ROI
• 37-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.1 Units / -21.39% ROI

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are 10-24 (.294) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .135.

The Brewers are 8-25 (.242) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .097.

The Brewers are 30-16 (.652) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Brewers are 52-12 (.812) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 4-24 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

The Pirates are 37-9 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Pirates are just 21-50 (.296) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2025 season Today, they face Brewers (second in runs allowed).

The Pirates are just 11-67 (.141) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends

Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB.

The Brewers have a winning percentage of 65% on the road this season — best in MLB.

Brewers hitters have an OBP of .367 (412 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Brewers hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,074 of their 3,626 plate appearances (30%) this season — highest in MLB.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .305 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .353 (2,707 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Pirates are batting .297 on fastballs this season — best in MLB.

Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends

The Brewers have won 55% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in the first 5 innings this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .205 against Brewers pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Pirates have allowed 5.10 runs per game (245/48) at home this season — 4th highest in MLB.

The Pirates have allowed 1.77 runs per game (166/94) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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