- The Brewers are + favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Milwaukee Brewers (+) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+) on Sunday, July 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 44-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 40-42 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | + + | O + | + |
| Pirates | + + | U + | + |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+16.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 50 games (+10.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 46 games (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 50 games (+7.85 Units / 11% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+8.30 Units / 61% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.25 Units / 39% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Willy Adames | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 77 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+5.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+14.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.55 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.20 Units / 31% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 37-46 against the Run Line (-14.3 Units / -13.68% ROI).
- 44-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 0.82% ROI
- 35-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.85 Units / -15.02% ROI
- 44-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.75 Units / 6.36% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 40-42 against the Run Line (-12.4 Units / -11.36% ROI).
- 39-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 0.49% ROI
- 40-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -0.66% ROI
- 37-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.7 Units / -7.43% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.0 innings pitched — Elvis Peguero has the longest active streak at 21.1.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (8/39) against Colin Rea over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of .663 (61 Total Bases / 92 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .438 — first Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of just .383 (72 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .733 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (85/270) against Rich Hill this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
14 of Rich Hill’s 43 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (125/366) when he’s behind in the count this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 92nd Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (706/1,499) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 25-13 (.658) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Brewers are 11-7 (.611) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are 19-3 (.864) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Pirates are just 101-143 (.414) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 34-123 (.217) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Pirates are 10-5 (.667) after a loss as favorites since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Brewers are batting just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .122 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Pirates are batting just .228 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 49 of 736 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 5 of 116 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Brewers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 877 of 9,376 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
