Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 03, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Brewers (45-35) are -225 favorites vs the Pirates (32-46)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (6-3), 4.43 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (1-4), 3.43 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Milwaukee Brewers (-225) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 45-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 37-41 ATS.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 -125O 8 -105-225
Pirates +1.5 +105U 8 -115+180

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 52.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+7.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+6.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+6.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.45 Units / 53% ROI)

Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Quintana 4.5 -135 4.5 -105
Brandon Woodruff 6.5 -160 6.5 +110
Zach Thompson 3.5 -110 3.5 -125
Brandon Woodruff 7.5 +110 7.5 -155
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+11.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 away games (+4.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 77 games (+10.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 37 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.55 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 92% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 35-45 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -12.03% ROI).

  • 45-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -3.17% ROI
  • 41-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 4.16% ROI
  • 34-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -11.79% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 37-41 against the Run Line (-9 Units / -9.22% ROI).

  • 32-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -1.88% ROI
  • 34-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -8.66% ROI
  • 38-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.46% ROI

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .049 (2 GB hits out of 41 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to May 9th — Spencer Strider has the longest active streak at 6.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .184 (76-for-412) against Brandon Woodruff since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .422 (19 GB hits out of 45 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 0 Percentile.

José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 60% (232/385) in two strike counts this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — eighth Percentile.

Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 50% (246/495) of the time since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of 33% (24 SO in 72 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 90th Percentile.

Jose Quintana has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (106/195) of right-handed hitters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — third Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are 3-28 (.097) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .078.

The Brewers are 26-20 (.565) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

The Brewers are 40-13 (.755) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 76-20 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 22-5 (.815) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.

The Pirates are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.

The Pirates are just 3-34 (.081) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.

Brewers hitters are slugging .584 on the road over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.

Brewers hitters are slugging .432 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Brewers are batting just .323 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .276 (1,381 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .367 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

The Pirates are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,896 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 201 of 2,084 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 260 of 2,600 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 897 of 9,166 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.73 (339.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.

Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.