- The Brewers (45-35) are -225 favorites vs the Pirates (32-46)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (6-3), 4.43 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (1-4), 3.43 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Milwaukee Brewers (-225) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 45-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 37-41 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 -125 | O 8 -105 | -225 |
| Pirates | +1.5 +105 | U 8 -115 | +180 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 52.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+7.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+6.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+6.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.45 Units / 53% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 -105 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 6.5 -160 | 6.5 +110 |
| Zach Thompson | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -125 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+11.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 away games (+4.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 77 games (+10.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 37 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 92% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 35-45 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -12.03% ROI).
- 45-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -3.17% ROI
- 41-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 4.16% ROI
- 34-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -11.79% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 37-41 against the Run Line (-9 Units / -9.22% ROI).
- 32-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -1.88% ROI
- 34-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -8.66% ROI
- 38-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.46% ROI
Brandon Woodruff: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .049 (2 GB hits out of 41 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to May 9th — Spencer Strider has the longest active streak at 6.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .184 (76-for-412) against Brandon Woodruff since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .422 (19 GB hits out of 45 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 0 Percentile.
José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 60% (232/385) in two strike counts this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — eighth Percentile.
Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 50% (246/495) of the time since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of 33% (24 SO in 72 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 90th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (106/195) of right-handed hitters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — third Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 3-28 (.097) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .078.
The Brewers are 26-20 (.565) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Brewers are 40-13 (.755) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 76-20 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 22-5 (.815) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Pirates are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.
The Pirates are just 3-34 (.081) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging .584 on the road over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Brewers hitters are slugging .432 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Brewers are batting just .323 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .276 (1,381 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .367 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Pirates are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,896 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 201 of 2,084 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 260 of 2,600 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 897 of 9,166 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.73 (339.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
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