- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Pirates starting pitcher: Osvaldo Bido
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Milwaukee Brewers (-145) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) on Friday, June 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 43-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 39-41 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Brewers | -1.5 +115 | O 8.5 -105 | -145 |
Pirates | +1.5 -140 | U 8.5 -115 | +120 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 67.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 50 games (+15.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+14.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.30 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+8.65 Units / 102% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Josh Palacios | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Christian Yelich | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Austin Hedges | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
Josh Palacios | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Christian Yelich | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Austin Hedges | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -550 |
Josh Palacios | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Christian Yelich | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Osvaldo Bido | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Freddy Peralta | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+10.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+8.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+2.60 Units / 8% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 36-45 against the Run Line (-14.5 Units / -14.14% ROI).
- 43-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 1.14% ROI
- 33-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.85 Units / -17.62% ROI
- 44-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 8.95% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 39-41 against the Run Line (-12 Units / -11.29% ROI).
- 38-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.39% ROI
- 38-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -2.95% ROI
- 37-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -5.17% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 60% (271/454) in two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .225 (9-for-40) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — 96th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (116/201) — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (116/201) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Osvaldo Bido did not walk any of the 26 batters that he faced — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Osvaldo Bido has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Osvaldo Bido has not walked any of the 26 batters that he has faced over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for best in NL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Osvaldo Bido has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .298 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 6-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Brewers are 11-7 (.611) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Brewers are 32-26 (.552) after a road loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Brewers are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 35-3 (.921) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Pirates are just 100-142 (.413) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 16-25 (.390) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .227 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .640 (732 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .087 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Pirates are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Pirates are batting just .222 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 47 of 709 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 9 of 212 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have 87 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 864 of 9,251 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Pirates pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Back, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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