- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Pirates starting pitcher: Osvaldo Bido
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Milwaukee Brewers (-145) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) on Friday, June 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 43-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 39-41 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +115 | O 8.5 -105 | -145 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | U 8.5 -115 | +120 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 67.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 50 games (+15.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+14.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.30 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+8.65 Units / 102% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Osvaldo Bido | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Freddy Peralta | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+10.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+8.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+2.60 Units / 8% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 36-45 against the Run Line (-14.5 Units / -14.14% ROI).
- 43-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 1.14% ROI
- 33-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.85 Units / -17.62% ROI
- 44-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 8.95% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 39-41 against the Run Line (-12 Units / -11.29% ROI).
- 38-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.39% ROI
- 38-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -2.95% ROI
- 37-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -5.17% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 60% (271/454) in two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .225 (9-for-40) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — 96th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (116/201) — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (116/201) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Osvaldo Bido did not walk any of the 26 batters that he faced — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Osvaldo Bido has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Osvaldo Bido has not walked any of the 26 batters that he has faced over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for best in NL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Osvaldo Bido has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .298 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 6-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Brewers are 11-7 (.611) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Brewers are 32-26 (.552) after a road loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Brewers are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 35-3 (.921) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Pirates are just 100-142 (.413) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 16-25 (.390) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .227 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .640 (732 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .087 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Pirates are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Pirates are batting just .222 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 47 of 709 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 9 of 212 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have 87 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 864 of 9,251 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Pirates pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Back, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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