Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Brewers (44-33) are -130 favorites vs the Pirates (30-45)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser (4-8), 4.50 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (1-7), 4.14 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Milwaukee Brewers (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 44-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 35-40 ATS.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 +125O 9 -115-130
Pirates +1.5 -150U 9 -105+110

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 63.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+14.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.10 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+5.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 16 games at home (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Diego Castillo has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Hoy Park 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400

Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Hoy Park 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Hoy Park 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JT Brubaker 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
Adrian Houser 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+12.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+8.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.50 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 74 games (+7.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 66 games (+6.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 34 games (+4.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.60 Units / 63% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 34-43 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -11.05% ROI).

  • 44-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -1.12% ROI
  • 38-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 0.82% ROI
  • 34-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.05 Units / -8.35% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 35-40 against the Run Line (-10.15 Units / -10.78% ROI).

  • 30-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -4.41% ROI
  • 31-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.4 Units / -12.66% ROI
  • 38-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 4.44% ROI

Adrian Houser has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (235/452) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Adrian Houser has walked 18 of 123 batters (15%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

Adrian Houser has allowed an OBP of .297 (165 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (37/216) against Adrian Houser this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.

Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 57% (205/361) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 50% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (182/361) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (21/114) against JT Brubaker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 13th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .463 (19-for-41) against JT Brubaker when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — fifth Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Brewers are 3-26 (.103) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Brewers are 19-7 (.731) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .678.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 74-20 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 2-36 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Pirates are just 20-5 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters are slugging 1.026 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .569.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .454 (4,568 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .289 (2,718 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.

The Pirates are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,642 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 199 of 2,057 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 258 of 2,573 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 278 of 2,893 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (971.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.

Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.