Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Brewers (44-33) are -130 favorites vs the Pirates (30-45)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser (4-8), 4.50 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (1-7), 4.14 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Milwaukee Brewers (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 44-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 35-40 ATS.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 +125O 9 -115-130
Pirates +1.5 -150U 9 -105+110

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 63.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+14.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.10 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+5.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 16 games at home (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Diego Castillo has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Hoy Park 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400

Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Hoy Park 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Hoy Park 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JT Brubaker 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
Adrian Houser 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+12.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+8.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.50 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 74 games (+7.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 66 games (+6.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 34 games (+4.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.60 Units / 63% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 34-43 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -11.05% ROI).

  • 44-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -1.12% ROI
  • 38-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 0.82% ROI
  • 34-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.05 Units / -8.35% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 35-40 against the Run Line (-10.15 Units / -10.78% ROI).

  • 30-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -4.41% ROI
  • 31-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.4 Units / -12.66% ROI
  • 38-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 4.44% ROI

Adrian Houser has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (235/452) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Adrian Houser has walked 18 of 123 batters (15%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

Adrian Houser has allowed an OBP of .297 (165 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (37/216) against Adrian Houser this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.

Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 57% (205/361) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 50% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (182/361) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (21/114) against JT Brubaker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 13th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .463 (19-for-41) against JT Brubaker when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — fifth Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Brewers are 3-26 (.103) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Brewers are 19-7 (.731) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .678.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 74-20 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 2-36 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Pirates are just 20-5 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters are slugging 1.026 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .569.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .454 (4,568 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .289 (2,718 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.

The Pirates are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,642 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 199 of 2,057 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 258 of 2,573 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 278 of 2,893 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (971.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.

Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.