- The Brewers are -130 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Pirates TV Channel: SNPT | FDWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Thursday, May 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 24-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 20-30 ATS.
Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Tobias Myers 1-1, 4.95 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Michael Burrows 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -110 | -130 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | U 9 -110 | +110 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+18.00 Units / 257% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+15.30 Units / 66% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 100% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games (+11.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 46 games (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 43 games (+5.42 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.05 Units / 61% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games (+15.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+13.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 24-25 against the Run Line (-6.3 Units / -9.19% ROI).
- 24-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -5.74% ROI
- 18-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -25.34% ROI
- 29-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.3 Units / 16.96% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 20-30 against the Run Line (-15.9 Units / -24.79% ROI).
- 17-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.8 Units / -24.86% ROI
- 17-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -28.45% ROI
- 30-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.4 Units / 20.6% ROI
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Caleb Durbin (MIL) | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .150 (16-for-107) against Tobias Myers with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 98th Percentile.
Tobias Myers allowed a slugging percentage of .711 (32 Total Bases / 45 ABs) on low fastballs in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .403 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (48/87) against Tobias Myers when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Tobias Myers allowed an OPS of just .434 (124 PA’s) with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .728 — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Burrows has limited playing time.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are just 3-146 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Brewers are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Brewers are just 1-18 (.053) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .176.
The Brewers are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 7-61 (.103) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 11-41 (.212) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Pirates are just 0-21 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .176.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Brewers are batting just .194 this month (19 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .321 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .304 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 41% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Pirates are batting just .206 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 55% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 57% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Brewers pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates have won just 9% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 4% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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