- The Brewers are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andre Jackson
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Milwaukee Brewers (-185) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 76-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 70-67 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -115 | -185 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -105 | +150 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 69.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+11.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.70 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+10.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+8.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.50 Units / 65% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 111% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+7.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andre Jackson | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 away games (+12.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.13 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.78 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 110 games (+11.39 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 41 games (+4.09 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+3.82 Units / 22% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 64-73 against the Run Line (-13.2 Units / -7.66% ROI).
- 76-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 4.38% ROI
- 60-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.8 Units / -12.45% ROI
- 71-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.4 Units / 3.64% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 70-67 against the Run Line (-13.9 Units / -7.62% ROI).
- 64-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 4.38% ROI
- 73-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.35 Units / 6.24% ROI
- 58-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.8 Units / -14.58% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Woodruff has struck out 34% (127/369) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has a strikeout rate of 31% (239 SO in 772 PAs) since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .205 (145-for-706) against Brandon Woodruff since last season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .110 (19-for-172) against Brandon Woodruff’s elevated fastball since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (20/65) against Andre Jackson this season — 8th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — ninth Percentile.
Andre Jackson has allowed a slugging percentage of .439 (72 Total Bases / 164 ABs) this season — 9th highest among in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 10th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (21/65) against Andre Jackson this season — 3rd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Andre Jackson has walked 10 of 176 batters (6%) this season — tied for 6th best among in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 94th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 17-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Brewers are 18-35 (.340) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Brewers are 32-10 (.762) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
The Brewers are 35-25 (.583) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 20-33 (.377) after a road win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Pirates are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 29-57 (.337) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Pirates are 12-5 (.706) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .583.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 104 extra-base hits out of 400 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have 742 strikeouts in 2,930 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .232 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Brewers are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .230 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are batting just .221 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .670 (3,496 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Pirates are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last 30 days (25 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Brewers pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes over the last 30 days (25 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,088 of 11,544 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 345 of 4,038 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
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Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, Day-to-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
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