- The – are favorites vs the –
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Pirates starting pitcher: Colin Selby
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Milwaukee Brewers () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Wednesday, September 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 77-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 70-68 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | O | ||
| Pirates | U |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 78.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+12.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+11.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+10.55 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+11.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+10.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+8.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -120 |
| Colin Selby | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.78 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 111 games (+12.39 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 42 games (+3.09 Units / 7% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 65-73 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -7.04% ROI).
- 77-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 4.92% ROI
- 61-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.8 Units / -11.71% ROI
- 71-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.2 Units / 2.81% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 70-68 against the Run Line (-15.05 Units / -8.2% ROI).
- 64-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.5 Units / 3.68% ROI
- 74-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.35 Units / 6.86% ROI
- 58-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -23 Units / -15.26% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 38% (212/561) against Freddy Peralta this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (68/351) against Freddy Peralta this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .209 (112-for-536) against Freddy Peralta this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .126 (13-for-103) against Freddy Peralta over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (118/579) against Mitch Keller this season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 17th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .213 (19 Total Bases / 89 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 97th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .310 (22 Total Bases / 71 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .402 — 86th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 17-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 18-35 (.340) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Brewers are 32-10 (.762) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
The Brewers are 24-23 (.511) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 22-120 (.155) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Pirates are just 121-150 (.446) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Pirates are just 20-33 (.377) after a road win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Pirates are just 104-54 (.658) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .232 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Brewers hitters have 105 extra-base hits out of 402 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .672 (3,503 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Pirates are batting just .221 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Pirates are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% over the last 30 days (25 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (11 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 27 of 224 batters (12%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,094 of 11,583 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
