- The Rangers are -135 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Milwaukee Brewers (+110) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-135) on Saturday, August 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Brewers vs Rangers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 66-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 72-49 ATS.
Brewers vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -105 | +110 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -115 | -135 |
Brewers vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 67.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 31 games (+18.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+10.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 46 games (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 47 games (+12.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+12.55 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jordan Montgomery has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.65 Units / 77% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+10.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Rangers vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rangers vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Rangers vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Rangers vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dane Dunning | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Freddy Peralta | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 101 games (+11.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 101 games (+9.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 43 away games (+6.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 62 away games (+5.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 24 away games (+2.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 114 games (+27.23 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 68 of their last 114 games (+25.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+23.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 70 of their last 114 games (+20.42 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+14.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 55-68 against the Run Line (-17.2 Units / -11.27% ROI).
- 66-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 0.85% ROI
- 53-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.05 Units / -13.35% ROI
- 64-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.85 Units / 4.39% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 72-49 against the Run Line (+26.3 Units / 17.64% ROI).
- 72-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.5 Units / 6.12% ROI
- 60-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -0.52% ROI
- 55-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.95 Units / -8.24% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .208 (11-for-53) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (351/1,037) against Freddy Peralta this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (99/235) against Freddy Peralta over the last 30 days (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .218 (104-for-477) against Freddy Peralta this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 87th Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dane Dunning has a strikeout rate of just 37% (97 SO in 261 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 16th Percentile.
Dane Dunning has a strikeout rate of just 19% (97 SO in 518 PAs) this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 14th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (191/917) against Dane Dunning this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 14th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .211 (55-for-261) against Dane Dunning this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 87th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Brewers are 18-9 (.667) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Brewers are 14-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 16-12 (.571) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Brewers are just 16-60 (.211) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Rangers are just 1-123 (.008) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Rangers are just 0-42 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Rangers are 22-14 (.611) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
The Rangers are just 1-37 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .224 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Brewers are batting just .228 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .354 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Brewers are batting just .209 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .822 (1,292 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Rangers hitters are slugging .311 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Rangers hitters are slugging .505 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Rangers are batting .281 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Rangers pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 223 of 2,524 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 346 of 4,468 batters (8%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rangers vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hamstring, D10
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Jung (Rangers): Thumb, D10
- Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers): Elbow, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
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