- The Rangers are -130 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Janson Junk, 7.20 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi, 0.00 ERA
The Milwaukee Brewers (+110) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Texas Rangers (-130) on Friday, March 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Surprise.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Brewers vs Rangers Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Brewers are 6-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 7-8 ATS.
Brewers vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -175 | O 10.5 +100 | +110 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +145 | U 10.5 -120 | -130 |
Brewers vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 53.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.65 Units / 120% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eli White has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brad Miller has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.20 Units / 107% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ezequiel Duran has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+1.10 Units / 55% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (+5.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+2.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 151 games (+9.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+2.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 8-6 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 5.07% ROI).
- 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -22.32% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -31.94% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 24.03% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 7-8 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -7.01% ROI).
- 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -9.07% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 20.18% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -28.7% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nathan Eovaldi had a strike rate of 70% (725/1,033) against right-handed batters last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (26/174) versus Nathan Eovaldi on non-fastballs last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has walked 55 of 1,224 batters (4%) since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has walked 7 of 303 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Brewers are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are 9-57 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Brewers are 46-35 (.568) at home last season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Rangers are just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are just 34-47 (.420) at home last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Rangers are just 65-82 (.442) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Rangers are just 23-75 (.235) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have 810 strikeouts in 3,250 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters had an OPS of .925 (376 PA’s) against pitchers who had thrown at least 80 pitches in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Rangers have a winning percentage of just 43% at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rangers hitters slugged just .331 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 30 days of the regular season (28 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 51% of their games last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 59% of their games since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rangers vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
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