- The Rays are -275 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Milwaukee Brewers (+225) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-275) on Friday, May 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Brewers vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 24-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 27-18 ATS.
Brewers vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 +105 | O 7.5 +100 | +225 |
| Rays | -1.5 -125 | U 7.5 -120 | -275 |
Brewers vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+13.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+10.20 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+9.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 64% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 28 games (+9.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Rays vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rays vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Rays vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Rays vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Houser | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
| Shane McClanahan | 7.5 -140 | 7.5 +105 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 42 games (+4.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+4.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 45 games (+15.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+10.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+9.60 Units / 41% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 20-23 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -5.37% ROI).
- 24-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 5.72% ROI
- 19-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -14.67% ROI
- 23-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 4.51% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 27-18 against the Run Line (+10.3 Units / 19.66% ROI).
- 32-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.1 Units / 19.92% ROI
- 25-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.85 Units / 11.74% ROI
- 17-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.7 Units / -21.77% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (64/294) against Adrian Houser with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Adrian Houser has a strike rate of just 57% (294/515) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (96/187) of left-handed hitters since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.
Adrian Houser has a strike rate of just 59% (571/971) vs left-handed batters since last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 64% — sixth Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (146/412) against Shane McClanahan this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has walked 24 of 206 batters (12%) this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (146/412) against Shane McClanahan this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has walked 24 of 206 batters (12%) this season — 4th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 8% — eighth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Brewers are 21-12 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 11-43 (.204) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are 33-29 (.532) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Rays are 19-3 (.864) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Rays are 8-8 (.500) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Rays are 7-4 (.636) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Rays are 2-11 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have 128 strikeouts in 418 PA’s (31%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .552 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Rays hitters are slugging .506 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .913 (313 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 86% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Brewers pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,074 times since last season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Rays pitchers have won 62% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Rays pitchers have walked 527 of 7,579 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor Strain, D60
- Yandy DÃaz (Rays): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Louis Voit (Brewers): Neck, D10
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Christian Yelich (Brewers): Back, Day-to-Day
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Lat Strain, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
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