- The Rays are -140 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Rays starting pitcher: Jalen Beeks
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Milwaukee Brewers (+115) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-140) on Sunday, May 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Brewers vs Rays Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 24-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 28-19 ATS.
Brewers vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -160 | +115 |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | U 9 +135 | -140 |
Brewers vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Rays and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+12.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+10.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.80 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 29 games (+10.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+9.15 Units / 67% ROI)
Rays vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
Rays vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Rays vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Rays vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 39 games (+4.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 44 games (+2.60 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.30 Units / 5% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 47 games (+17.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 47 games (+15.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games (+10.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 21-24 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -5.42% ROI).
- 24-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 2.07% ROI
- 20-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -14.16% ROI
- 24-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 3.99% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 28-19 against the Run Line (+10.2 Units / 18.7% ROI).
- 34-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.1 Units / 21.32% ROI
- 26-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 11.16% ROI
- 18-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.85 Units / -21.09% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta walked 5 of 27 batters (18%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (16/42) against Freddy Peralta on breaking pitches this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has walked 7 of 50 batters (14%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .186 (8 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — 92nd Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (138/287) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 51% of the time (44/86) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (658/1,362) since last season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 38% of the time (132/348) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Brewers are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Brewers are 17-2 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Brewers are 7-5 (.583) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Brewers are just 11-44 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Rays are 8-8 (.500) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Rays are 7-4 (.636) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Rays are 21-3 (.875) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Rays are 24-8 (.750) after a win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 135 strikeouts in 445 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .578 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Rays hitters are slugging .503 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .945 (330 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Rays hitters are slugging .342 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have 48 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Brewers pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Rays vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor Strain, D60
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Louis Voit (Brewers): Neck, D10
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Lat Strain, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Bukauskas (Brewers): Spine, D15
Bet now on Brewers vs Rays and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
