Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (55-44) are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox (50-50)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (8-3), 3.73 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello (0-2), 10.50 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Milwaukee Brewers (-165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+140) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Brewers vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 55-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 52-48 ATS.

Brewers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 -105O 9 -105-165
Red Sox +1.5 -115U 9 -115+140

Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 62.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games (+11.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 42 games (+10.15 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+10.30 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 18 games at home (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+9.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+8.85 Units / 12% ROI)

Red Sox vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750

Red Sox vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 1.5 +195 1.5 -300
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Franchy Cordero 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Red Sox vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Red Sox vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Woodruff 6.5 -140 6.5 +100
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 79 games (+16.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 79 games (+9.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 71 games (+9.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+8.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 66 games (+7.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 71 games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 80 games (+4.40 Units / 5% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 42-57 against the Run Line (-18.65 Units / -15.48% ROI).

  • 55-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -5.28% ROI
  • 50-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.95 Units / 1.78% ROI
  • 44-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.15 Units / -9.32% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 52-48 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 3.61% ROI).

  • 50-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -5.19% ROI
  • 45-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -4.18% ROI
  • 46-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -2.66% ROI

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .047 (2 GB hits out of 43 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff has struck out 41% (57/140) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 17% (5/29) against Brandon Woodruff this month (4 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff has not allowed a home run in any of the last 30.0 innings he’s appeared — Dennis Santana has the longest active streak at 53.1.

Brayan Bello: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .484 (64 PA’s) this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .307 — 0 Percentile.

Brayan Bello has an ERA of 10.50 (12.0 IP)this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — first Percentile.

Brayan Bello has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to July 6th — the longest active streak is 8.

Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 59% (134/228) this month (3 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Brewers are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 11-4 (.733) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 5-34 (.128) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Brewers are just 4-21 (.160) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Red Sox are just 135-20 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are just 6-20 (.231) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Red Sox are just 2-38 (.050) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Red Sox are just 1-39 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

The Brewers are batting just .229 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% against LHP over the last 14 days (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Red Sox are batting .181 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .550 (5,364 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (2,329 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (6,008 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.40 (90.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.46 (213.0 IP) this month (24 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.