- The Brewers (56-44) are -115 favorites vs the Red Sox (50-51)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (6-3), 3.84 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (8-7), 4.35 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Milwaukee Brewers (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Brewers vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 56-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 52-49 ATS.
Brewers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | O 10 -115 | -115 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 10 -105 | -105 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 64.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+10.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 62% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+11.60 Units / 61% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.65 Units / 74% ROI)
Red Sox vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jaylin Davis | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jaylin Davis | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jaylin Davis | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -140 |
| Eric Lauer | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+15.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+8.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 away games (+3.10 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 72 games (+8.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 67 games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 81 games (+5.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 72 games (+4.90 Units / 5% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 43-57 against the Run Line (-17.65 Units / -14.52% ROI).
- 56-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -4.59% ROI
- 50-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 0.72% ROI
- 45-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -8.32% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 52-49 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 2.67% ROI).
- 50-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -5.94% ROI
- 45-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -5.18% ROI
- 47-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.75% ROI
Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 33% of Eric Lauer’s breaking pitches (99/303) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (93/279) against Eric Lauer this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (75/242) against Eric Lauer this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (39/115) against Eric Lauer in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has an ERA of 7.57 (44.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.41 — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 17% (61/368) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (42/121) against Nick Pivetta in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (113/323) against Nick Pivetta this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Brewers are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 5-34 (.128) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Brewers are just 4-21 (.160) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Brewers are 12-4 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Red Sox are just 135-20 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Red Sox are just 2-38 (.050) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Red Sox are just 40-8 (.833) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Red Sox are just 1-40 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .376 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers have answered-back in 39% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Brewers hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .436 against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.36 (222.0 IP) this month (25 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.69 (88.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.68 (136.0 IP) at home this month (15 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.
The Red Sox have allowed 8.90 runs per game (89/10) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Red Sox vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
- Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
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