- The – (67-33) are favorites vs the – (67-33)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (2-8), 4.38 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (3-5), 5.17 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Milwaukee Brewers () visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox () on Sunday, July 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Brewers vs Red Sox Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 57-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 52-50 ATS.
Brewers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | O | ||
| Red Sox | U |
Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 68.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 44 games (+11.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 40 games (+11.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 36 away games (+10.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+10.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+8.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.D. Martinez | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Winckowski | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +100 |
| Aaron Ashby | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games (+14.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+9.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 away games (+4.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 73 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 82 games (+4.40 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 68 games (+4.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 73 games (+3.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 44-57 against the Run Line (-16.25 Units / -13.26% ROI).
- 57-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -3.92% ROI
- 51-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.61% ROI
- 45-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -9.31% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 52-50 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 1.38% ROI).
- 50-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -6.72% ROI
- 46-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -4.24% ROI
- 47-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -2.79% ROI
Aaron Ashby: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 68% (15/22) against Aaron Ashby — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 37% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 57% of Aaron Ashby’s pitches in the zone (388/681) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Aaron Ashby has a strike rate of 74% (98/133) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 75% (12/16) against Aaron Ashby against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Joshua Winckowski: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (19/155) against Josh Winckowski this month (4 games) — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to July 7th — the longest active streak is 5.
Josh Winckowski has allowed an OPS of .707 (46 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .506 — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (37/172) against Josh Winckowski this month (4 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Brewers are 31-24 (.564) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Brewers are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 12-4 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 29-20 (.592) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Red Sox are just 1-41 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Red Sox are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Red Sox are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 6-21 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .376 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Brewers hitters have 251 strikeouts in 1,028 PA’s (24%) against LHP this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .435 against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .756 (6,874 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.09 (89.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.47 (231.0 IP) this month (26 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.83 (145.0 IP) at home this month (16 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 111 of 1,067 batters (10%) this month (26 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
- Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
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