- The Brewers are -115 favorites vs the Reds
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Milwaukee Brewers (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Friday, July 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 49-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 57-34 ATS.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | O 10 -115 | -115 |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | U 10 -105 | -105 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 59.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Earned Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.20 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+7.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+6.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 54% ROI)
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -115 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 away games (+4.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 away games (+4.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 69 games (+25.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 90 games (+21.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+14.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 84 games (+12.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+7.55 Units / 23% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 42-49 against the Run Line (-11.05 Units / -9.66% ROI).
- 49-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 2.17% ROI
- 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -10.04% ROI
- 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 1.11% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 57-34 against the Run Line (+20.2 Units / 17.29% ROI).
- 50-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.05 Units / 18.17% ROI
- 53-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.7 Units / 11.74% ROI
- 38-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.25 Units / -20.13% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 62% of the time (2,194/3,514) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 66% of the time (263/399) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 62% of the time (771/1,241) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
157 of Corbin Burnes’ 345 strikeouts (46%) have come on cutters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 8.22 (73.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (54/356) against Graham Ashcraft when he’s behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (1,049/1,477) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .312 (125-for-400) against Graham Ashcraft since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: .249 — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Brewers are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 25-13 (.658) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are 20-8 (.714) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Reds are 17-31 (.354) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Reds are just 20-46 (.303) after a road loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Reds are 31-19 (.620) after a win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .226 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .367 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have 234 strikeouts in 850 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting .388 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 45% at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Reds hitters are slugging .694 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 56 of 810 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have 101 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days (10 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .302 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
Bet now on Brewers vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
