- The Reds are -120 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Milwaukee Brewers (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Saturday, July 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 50-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 58-34 ATS.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -190 | O 9 +100 | +100 |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -120 | -120 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Earned Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Luke Voit has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 56% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 21 away games (+5.75 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Henry Ramos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.25 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.10 Units / 56% ROI)
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Freddy Peralta | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 70 games (+24.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 91 games (+22.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 85 games (+11.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 42-50 against the Run Line (-12.05 Units / -10.44% ROI).
- 50-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 3.02% ROI
- 41-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -11.01% ROI
- 47-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 2.09% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 58-34 against the Run Line (+21.2 Units / 17.91% ROI).
- 50-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.05 Units / 16.99% ROI
- 53-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.6 Units / 10.52% ROI
- 39-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.25 Units / -18.93% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has struck out 30% (55/181) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 85th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 32% (242/763) against Freddy Peralta this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .225 (9-for-40) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .342 — 96th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of .688 (22 Total Bases / 32 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .392 — first Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (22/104) against Andrew Abbott this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 13% (3/23) against Andrew Abbott — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 18% (11/60) against Andrew Abbott over the last 30 days (5 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 16% (5/31) against Andrew Abbott — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 26-13 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Brewers are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 10-3 (.769) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
The Reds are just 20-46 (.303) after a road loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Reds are 21-8 (.724) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .597.
The Reds are 20-8 (.714) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have 674 strikeouts in 2,561 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Brewers are batting .452 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have scored first in just 33% of their games against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters have 41 strikeouts in 106 PA’s (39%) over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 56 of 819 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have 103 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.5 MPH (2,320 batted balls) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .302 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Reds pitchers have walked 956 of 9,833 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, Day-to-Day
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
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