- The Reds are -140 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
- Reds starting pitcher: Edward Lively
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Milwaukee Brewers (+115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-140) on Sunday, July 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 51-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 58-35 ATS.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -150 | O 11 -110 | +115 |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | U 11 -110 | -140 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 56.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+13.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.70 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+11.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+11.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+10.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+9.70 Units / 28% ROI)
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Adrian Houser | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 away games (+6.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games (+5.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 71 games (+23.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 92 games (+21.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+12.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+11.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 62 games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 43-50 against the Run Line (-11.05 Units / -9.44% ROI).
- 51-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 3.91% ROI
- 41-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.45 Units / -12.05% ROI
- 48-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 3.06% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 58-35 against the Run Line (+20.2 Units / 16.93% ROI).
- 50-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.8 Units / 15.55% ROI
- 53-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.4 Units / 9.22% ROI
- 40-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.25 Units / -17.77% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (648/901) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has a strike rate of just 58% (744/1,281) vs left-handed batters since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (65/452) against Adrian Houser since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 25% (90/365) against Adrian Houser with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 1 double play in 37 opportunities (3%) this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 11% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (10/42) against Ben Lively on elevated fastballs this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 19% (3/16) against Ben Lively — 9th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — 11th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (46/151) against Ben Lively this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Brewers are 10-3 (.769) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Brewers are 33-26 (.559) after a road loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
The Reds are just 20-46 (.303) after a road loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Reds are 20-8 (.714) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 9-30 (.231) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting .444 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .225 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Brewers hitters have 678 strikeouts in 2,585 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .103 over the past seven days (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .270 (96 PA’s) over the past seven days (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Reds hitters have 44 strikeouts in 96 PA’s (46%) over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Reds hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,002 of their 3,584 plate appearances (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 56 of 828 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 959 of 9,868 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .302 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Reds pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
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