- The Brewers are -115 favorites vs the Reds
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Milwaukee Brewers (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Saturday, June 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 30-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 34-23 ATS.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | O 10 +100 | -115 |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | U 10 -120 | -105 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+15.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+11.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+20.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+11.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+11.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Owen Miller | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -175 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+10.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+6.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 56 games (+2.55 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+0.45 Units / 8% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 29 games at home (+13.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games (+8.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+6.20 Units / 56% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 26-31 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -9.84% ROI).
- 30-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 1.61% ROI
- 24-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -16.84% ROI
- 31-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 7.23% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 34-23 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 12.04% ROI).
- 26-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 0.99% ROI
- 32-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 7.88% ROI
- 25-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -16.3% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (12/18) against Colin Rea — tied for 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Colin Rea had a first-pitch strike rate of 83% (20/24) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (20/123) against Colin Rea this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Colin Rea has a first-pitch strike rate of 83% (20/24) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .353 (18-for-51) against Graham Ashcraft’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OBP of .387 (142 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — first Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has struck out just 15% (22/143) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — sixth Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has walked 15 of 143 right-handed batters (10%) this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — ninth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 22-1 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .863.
The Brewers are 25-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Brewers are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Brewers are just 5-13 (.278) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are 8-19 (.296) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Reds are just 24-34 (.414) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .650.
The Reds are just 22-23 (.489) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 15-27 (.357) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .629 (557 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Brewers are batting just .219 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .341 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Brewers hitters have 603 strikeouts in 2,268 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .453 (1,181 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Reds hitters are slugging just .218 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .372 against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 33 of 503 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 4 of 116 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .296 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .308 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Reds pitchers have walked 820 of 8,440 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 9 of 55 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Terry Friedl (Reds): Hamstring, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Lat Strain, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Willy Adames (Brewers): Head, D7
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Bukauskas (Brewers): Spine, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Neck, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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