- The Brewers are +100 favorites vs the Reds
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
- Reds starting pitcher: Edward Lively
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Milwaukee Brewers (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Sunday, June 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 31-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 34-24 ATS.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | O 9.5 -115 | +100 |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | U 9.5 -105 | -120 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+14.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+19.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+12.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+12.25 Units / 111% ROI)
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Owen Miller | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Adrian Houser | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 52 games (+5.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 57 games (+3.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 30 games at home (+14.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 36 games (+6.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 27-31 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -7.73% ROI).
- 31-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 2.97% ROI
- 25-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -15% ROI
- 31-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 5.37% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 34-24 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 9.6% ROI).
- 26-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -0.81% ROI
- 33-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.9 Units / 9.32% ROI
- 25-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.4 Units / -17.73% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has a strike rate of just 58% (326/558) with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Adrian Houser has a strike rate of just 58% (620/1,062) vs left-handed batters since last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Adrian Houser has allowed an OBP of .376 (157 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .289 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (174/995) against Adrian Houser since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has allowed an OPS of just .564 (88 PA’s) this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .734 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .193 (16-for-83) against Ben Lively this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 94th Percentile.
Ben Lively has an ERA of 1.99 (22.2 IP)this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 4.30 — 97th Percentile.
Ben Lively has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 15 opportunities (0%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 11% — fifth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 22-2 (.917) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .785.
The Brewers are 25-1 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Brewers are 23-1 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .864.
The Brewers are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 22-23 (.489) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 15-27 (.357) after a home win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Reds are 8-20 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Reds are just 4-10 (.286) after a road loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .219 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .629 (557 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Brewers are batting just .210 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .359 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .218 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .660 (2,575 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .690.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 38% on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 33 of 503 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 10 of 236 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 30 days (27 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .296 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .308 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Reds pitchers have walked 820 of 8,440 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .330 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Terry Friedl (Reds): Hamstring, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Lat Strain, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Willy Adames (Brewers): Head, D7
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Bukauskas (Brewers): Spine, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Neck, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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