Brewers vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 23, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Brewers (80-70) are -165 favorites vs the Reds (59-91)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (10-7), 3.91 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (4-12), 6.06 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Milwaukee Brewers (-165) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+140) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 80-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 70-78 ATS.

Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 -105O 8.5 -110-165
Reds +1.5 -115U 8.5 -110+140

Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 57 away games (+10.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 42 of his last 88 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)

Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Jonathan India 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Matt Reynolds 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Spencer Steer 0.5 +400 0.5 -750

Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aristides Aquino 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Jonathan India 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Matt Reynolds 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Spencer Steer 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jonathan India 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Matt Reynolds 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Spencer Steer 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Lauer 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 69 of their last 130 games (+12.10 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 122 games (+15.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+3.35 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.25 Units / 13% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 63-86 against the Run Line (-30.75 Units / -17.05% ROI).

  • 80-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -8.05% ROI
  • 73-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -1.4% ROI
  • 69-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.1 Units / -6.15% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 70-78 against the Run Line (-14.2 Units / -7.83% ROI).

  • 58-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.75 Units / -11.1% ROI
  • 71-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.1 Units / -6.74% ROI
  • 74-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -2.81% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (110/346) against Eric Lauer this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (196/594) against Eric Lauer since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (6/49) against Eric Lauer on low breaking pitches this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .270 (31-for-115) against Eric Lauer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.

Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .739 (105 Total Bases / 142 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .431 — 0 Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of 1.149 (161 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .752 — 0 Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .402 (82 Total Bases / 204 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .263 — first Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of .977 (356 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .709 — 0 Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Brewers are 8-52 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Brewers are 42-30 (.583) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Brewers are just 56-11 (.836) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Brewers are 22-120 (.155) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .126.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Reds are just 8-29 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.

The Reds are just 11-70 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.

The Reds are just 4-77 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Reds are just 30-45 (.400) at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of .750 (4,094 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Brewers are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Brewers hitters are slugging .431 against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

The Reds are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Reds hitters are slugging just .353 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

The Reds have won just 61% of games in which they have scored first at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.

Reds hitters have 752 strikeouts in 3,124 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,177 of 11,954 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .276 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Reds pitchers have walked 85 of 774 batters (11%) this month (21 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 560 of 5,755 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Spencer Steer (Reds): Eye, Day-to-Day
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Eric Lauer (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.