- The Brewers (80-70) are -165 favorites vs the Reds (59-91)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (10-7), 3.91 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (4-12), 6.06 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Milwaukee Brewers (-165) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+140) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 80-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 70-78 ATS.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -110 | -165 |
| Reds | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -110 | +140 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 57 away games (+10.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 42 of his last 88 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 69 of their last 130 games (+12.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 122 games (+15.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+3.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 63-86 against the Run Line (-30.75 Units / -17.05% ROI).
- 80-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -8.05% ROI
- 73-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -1.4% ROI
- 69-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.1 Units / -6.15% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 70-78 against the Run Line (-14.2 Units / -7.83% ROI).
- 58-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.75 Units / -11.1% ROI
- 71-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.1 Units / -6.74% ROI
- 74-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -2.81% ROI
Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (110/346) against Eric Lauer this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (196/594) against Eric Lauer since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (6/49) against Eric Lauer on low breaking pitches this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .270 (31-for-115) against Eric Lauer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.
Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .739 (105 Total Bases / 142 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .431 — 0 Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of 1.149 (161 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .752 — 0 Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .402 (82 Total Bases / 204 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .263 — first Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of .977 (356 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .709 — 0 Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 8-52 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Brewers are 42-30 (.583) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Brewers are just 56-11 (.836) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Brewers are 22-120 (.155) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 8-29 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
The Reds are just 11-70 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Reds are just 4-77 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Reds are just 30-45 (.400) at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .750 (4,094 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Brewers are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Brewers hitters are slugging .431 against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Reds hitters are slugging just .353 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Reds have won just 61% of games in which they have scored first at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Reds hitters have 752 strikeouts in 3,124 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,177 of 11,954 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .276 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Reds pitchers have walked 85 of 774 batters (11%) this month (21 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 560 of 5,755 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Spencer Steer (Reds): Eye, Day-to-Day
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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