Brewers vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 24

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 24, 2022, 11:06 AM
  • The Reds (59-92) are +180 underdogs vs the Brewers (81-70)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (10-8), 3.11 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (5-3), 3.96 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Milwaukee Brewers (-225) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+180) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5.

The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 81-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 70-79 ATS.

Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5O 7.5 -105-225
Reds +1.5U 7.5 -115+180

Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 59.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+11.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 58 away games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.60 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 44 games (+9.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)

Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alejo Lopez 0.5 +1300 0.5
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Austin Romine 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Donovan Solano 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Jake Fraley 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alejo Lopez 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Aristides Aquino 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Austin Romine 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Donovan Solano 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jake Fraley 0.5 -145 0.5 +100

Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alejo Lopez 0.5 +300 0.5 -550
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Austin Romine 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Donovan Solano 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jake Fraley 0.5 +240 0.5 -350

Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Graham Ashcraft 3.5 -165 3.5 +120
Corbin Burnes 7.5 +100 7.5 -140
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 70 of their last 131 games (+13.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 123 games (+14.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+10.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+2.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.50 Units / 10% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 64-86 against the Run Line (-29.75 Units / -16.4% ROI).

  • 81-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -18 Units / -7.58% ROI
  • 73-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -2.08% ROI
  • 70-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -5.51% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 70-79 against the Run Line (-15.35 Units / -8.41% ROI).

  • 58-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.75 Units / -11.66% ROI
  • 71-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.25 Units / -7.39% ROI
  • 75-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -2.18% ROI

Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (89/210) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

103 of Corbin Burnes’ 223 strikeouts (46%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (300/507) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (856/1,398) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (68/109) against Graham Ashcraft in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (836/1,108) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (135/755) against Graham Ashcraft this season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (86/483) against Graham Ashcraft in non-two strike counts this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Brewers are 8-55 (.127) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Brewers are 8-52 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Brewers are just 9-33 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

The Brewers are 16-7 (.696) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Reds are just 45-7 (.865) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Reds are just 29-46 (.387) on the road this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Reds are just 57-74 (.435) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Reds are just 11-71 (.134) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.

The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .684 (3,115 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

The Reds are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Reds hitters have 755 strikeouts in 3,140 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Reds are batting just .324 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Reds have won just 53% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,183 of 11,998 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 566 of 5,799 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .296 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds pitchers have walked 121 of 1,332 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Donovan Solano (Reds): Eye, Day-to-Day
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.