- The Reds (59-92) are +180 underdogs vs the Brewers (81-70)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (10-8), 3.11 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (5-3), 3.96 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Milwaukee Brewers (-225) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+180) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5.
The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 81-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 70-79 ATS.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 | O 7.5 -105 | -225 |
| Reds | +1.5 | U 7.5 -115 | +180 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 59.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+11.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 58 away games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 44 games (+9.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejo Lopez | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejo Lopez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejo Lopez | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Ashcraft | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +120 |
| Corbin Burnes | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 70 of their last 131 games (+13.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.00 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 123 games (+14.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+10.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+2.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 64-86 against the Run Line (-29.75 Units / -16.4% ROI).
- 81-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -18 Units / -7.58% ROI
- 73-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -2.08% ROI
- 70-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -5.51% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 70-79 against the Run Line (-15.35 Units / -8.41% ROI).
- 58-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.75 Units / -11.66% ROI
- 71-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.25 Units / -7.39% ROI
- 75-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -2.18% ROI
Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (89/210) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
103 of Corbin Burnes’ 223 strikeouts (46%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (300/507) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (856/1,398) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (68/109) against Graham Ashcraft in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (836/1,108) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (135/755) against Graham Ashcraft this season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (86/483) against Graham Ashcraft in non-two strike counts this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 8-55 (.127) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Brewers are 8-52 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Brewers are just 9-33 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Brewers are 16-7 (.696) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 45-7 (.865) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Reds are just 29-46 (.387) on the road this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Reds are just 57-74 (.435) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Reds are just 11-71 (.134) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .684 (3,115 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Reds hitters have 755 strikeouts in 3,140 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Reds are batting just .324 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Reds have won just 53% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,183 of 11,998 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 566 of 5,799 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .296 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have walked 121 of 1,332 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Donovan Solano (Reds): Eye, Day-to-Day
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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