- The Brewers are -160 favorites vs the Rockies
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley
- Rockies starting pitcher: Connor Seabold
- Watch the game on SportsNet RM
The Milwaukee Brewers (-160) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+135) on Thursday, May 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Denver.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Brewers vs Rockies Over/Under is 12 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 18-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 12-19 ATS.
Brewers vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 -110 | O 12 -115 | -160 |
| Rockies | +1.5 -110 | U 12 -105 | +135 |
Brewers vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+7.75 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elias Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kris Bryant has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Rockies vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Rockies vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| C.J. Cron | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -185 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -200 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Rockies vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Rockies vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -175 |
| Seabold | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.15 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 49% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 15-15 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 1.68% ROI).
- 18-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.4 Units / 11.34% ROI
- 12-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.5 Units / -22.12% ROI
- 17-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 12.13% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 12-19 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -24.72% ROI).
- 11-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.8 Units / -17.31% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -20.4% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.1 Units / 12.24% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (368/661) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley had a first-pitch strike rate of just 42% (10/24) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (9/67) against Wade Miley on pitches in the strike zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (22/144) against Wade Miley this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Seabold has allowed an OBP of .667 (21 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .588 (10-for-17) against Connor Seabold versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .346 (9-for-26) against Connor Seabold this season — tied for 13th highest among among 109 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 12th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .265 (9-for-34) against Connor Seabold with two-strikes this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .154 — seventh Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Brewers are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Brewers are 20-12 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 4-6 (.400) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Brewers are 49-47 (.510) on the road since last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Rockies are just 15-53 (.221) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Rockies are just 0-11 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Rockies are just 27-13 (.675) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Rockies are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers hitters have 88 strikeouts in 285 PA’s (31%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers hitters have 528 strikeouts in 1,996 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies are batting .284 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Rockies are batting .282 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Rockies have won just 42% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Rockies hitters have an OBP of .346 (3,674 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
Rockies vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Knee, D15
- Noah Davis (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Germán Márquez (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Dinelson Lamet (Rockies): Back, D15
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Gus Varland (Brewers): Hand, D15
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
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