- The Twins (48-40) are -145 favorites vs the Brewers (48-39)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Jason Alexander (2-1), 4.75 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Josh Winder (4-2), 3.12 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Milwaukee Brewers (+120) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-145) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Brewers vs Twins Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 48-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 40-48 ATS.
Brewers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -160 | O 9.5 -115 | +120 |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | U 9.5 -105 | -145 |
Brewers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+19.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 14 games (+6.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+6.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 70% ROI)
Twins vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
| Byron Buxton | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Carlos Correa | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Twins vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -145 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
Twins vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Winder | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
| Jason Alexander | 2.5 +100 | 2.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games (+14.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games (+8.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 86 games (+10.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 71 games (+8.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 76 games (+8.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 51 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+4.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 37-50 against the Run Line (-14.85 Units / -14.24% ROI).
- 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -6.82% ROI
- 43-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.21% ROI
- 39-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.5 Units / -7.85% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 40-48 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -9.79% ROI).
- 48-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 3.11% ROI
- 41-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.3 Units / -3.42% ROI
- 41-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -4.3% ROI
Jason Alexander: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 5% (2/39) against Jason Alexander this month (1 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Jason Alexander has a strikeout rate of just 7% (2 SO in 28 PAs) this month (1 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Jason Alexander allowed an OPS of .953 (28 PA’s) — 11th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .654 — 10th Percentile.
Opponents batted .320 (8-for-25) against Jason Alexander — 12th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .231 — 11th Percentile.
Josh Winder: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 41 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Josh Winder. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 32 ABs ending on a two-strike slider from Josh Winder. — Yency Almonte has the longest active streak at 36.
Opponents are hitting .350 (7-for-20) against Josh Winder this month (1 games) — tied for 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .245 — ninth Percentile.
Josh Winder has thrown his slider 43% of the time (33/77) this month (1 games) — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total SL; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 5-31 (.139) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .112.
The Brewers are 27-20 (.574) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Brewers are 43-15 (.741) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Twins are 42-13 (.764) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Twins are just 2-8 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 41-6 (.872) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Twins are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Brewers are batting just .228 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (899/9,365 PA’s) since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .579 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Twins hitters have 48 extra-base hits out of 92 total hits (52%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .762 (2,418 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Twins hitters are slugging .422 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 13 of 107 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Twins pitchers this month (9 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
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