Brewers vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 12, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Twins (48-40) are -145 favorites vs the Brewers (48-39)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Jason Alexander (2-1), 4.75 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Josh Winder (4-2), 3.12 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Milwaukee Brewers (+120) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-145) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Brewers vs Twins Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 48-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 40-48 ATS.

Brewers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers+1.5 -160O 9.5 -115+120
Twins -1.5 +135U 9.5 -105-145

Brewers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Luis Urias has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.05 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+19.10 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 14 games (+6.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+6.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 70% ROI)

Twins vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Byron Buxton 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Carlos Correa 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Gio Urshela 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Jorge Polanco 0.5 +340 0.5 -650

Twins vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 1.5 +160 1.5 -250
Byron Buxton 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Carlos Correa 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Gio Urshela 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Jorge Polanco 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Twins vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Byron Buxton 0.5 +105 0.5 -145
Carlos Correa 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Gio Urshela 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jorge Polanco 0.5 +115 0.5 -160

Twins vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Winder 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
Jason Alexander 2.5 +100 2.5 -145
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games (+14.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games (+8.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 86 games (+10.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 71 games (+8.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 76 games (+8.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 51 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+4.10 Units / 11% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 37-50 against the Run Line (-14.85 Units / -14.24% ROI).

  • 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -6.82% ROI
  • 43-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.21% ROI
  • 39-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.5 Units / -7.85% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 40-48 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -9.79% ROI).

  • 48-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 3.11% ROI
  • 41-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.3 Units / -3.42% ROI
  • 41-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -4.3% ROI

Opponents have a miss rate of just 5% (2/39) against Jason Alexander this month (1 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Jason Alexander has a strikeout rate of just 7% (2 SO in 28 PAs) this month (1 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Jason Alexander allowed an OPS of .953 (28 PA’s) — 11th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .654 — 10th Percentile.

Opponents batted .320 (8-for-25) against Jason Alexander — 12th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .231 — 11th Percentile.

Josh Winder: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 41 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Josh Winder. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 32 ABs ending on a two-strike slider from Josh Winder. — Yency Almonte has the longest active streak at 36.

Opponents are hitting .350 (7-for-20) against Josh Winder this month (1 games) — tied for 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .245 — ninth Percentile.

Josh Winder has thrown his slider 43% of the time (33/77) this month (1 games) — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total SL; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 5-31 (.139) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .112.

The Brewers are 27-20 (.574) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Brewers are 43-15 (.741) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Twins are 42-13 (.764) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Twins are just 2-8 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 41-6 (.872) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Twins are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Brewers are batting just .228 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Brewers are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (899/9,365 PA’s) since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.

Twins hitters are slugging .579 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Twins hitters have 48 extra-base hits out of 92 total hits (52%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .762 (2,418 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Twins hitters are slugging .422 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have walked 13 of 107 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Twins pitchers this month (9 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Archer (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.