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Brewers vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 13

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 13, 2022, 12:00 PM
  • The Twins (48-41) are -125 favorites vs the Brewers (49-39)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (2-6), 4.52 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (6-3), 3.08 ERA
  • Watch the game on YouTube

The Milwaukee Brewers (+105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-125) on Wednesday, July 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Brewers vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 49-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 40-49 ATS.

Brewers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers+1.5 -190O 8.5 -115+105
Twins -1.5 +155U 8.5 -105-125

Brewers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.85 Units / 59% ROI)
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    Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+18.10 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games at home (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.95 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)
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    Twins vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Byron Buxton 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
    Carlos Correa 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
    Gio Urshela 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
    Jorge Polanco 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
    Ryan Jeffers 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

    Twins vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Byron Buxton 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
    Carlos Correa 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
    Gio Urshela 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
    Jorge Polanco 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
    Ryan Jeffers 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

    Twins vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Byron Buxton 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
    Carlos Correa 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
    Gio Urshela 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
    Jorge Polanco 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
    Ryan Jeffers 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

    Twins vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Joe Ryan 4.5 -125 4.5 -115
    Aaron Ashby 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 68 games (+15.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 68 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 away games (+6.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 54% ROI)
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  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+9.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 87 games (+9.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 77 games (+6.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+2.60 Units / 7% ROI)
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    Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 38-50 against the Run Line (-13.85 Units / -13.08% ROI).

    • 49-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -5.78% ROI
    • 43-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -0.82% ROI
    • 40-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -6.72% ROI

    Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 40-49 against the Run Line (-11.45 Units / -10.63% ROI).

    • 48-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 1.78% ROI
    • 41-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -4.41% ROI
    • 42-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -3.24% ROI

    Hitters have swung at 57% of Aaron Ashby’s pitches in the zone (316/556) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (90/139) against Aaron Ashby this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (23/139) against Aaron Ashby this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.

    Aaron Ashby has walked 9 of 67 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

    Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (6/29) against Joe Ryan this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

    Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (3/15) against Joe Ryan this month (2 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.

    Joe Ryan has a strikeout rate of just 10% (6 SO in 61 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.

    Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (27/95) against Joe Ryan this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.

    Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

    The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Brewers are 5-31 (.139) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .112.

    The Brewers are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

    The Brewers are 27-8 (.771) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

    Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

    The Twins are just 2-8 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Twins are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Twins are just 41-6 (.872) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

    The Twins are 42-13 (.764) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.

    The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

    Brewers hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

    The Brewers are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

    Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

    Twins hitters are slugging .579 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

    Twins hitters are slugging .435 against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

    Twins hitters have 48 extra-base hits out of 92 total hits (52%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

    Twins hitters have an OPS of .760 (2,446 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

    Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

    Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Twins pitchers this month (10 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    Twins vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Archer (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
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  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Christian Yelich (Brewers): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

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