- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The Milwaukee Brewers (+105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-125) on Tuesday, June 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Brewers vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 34-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 33-33 ATS.
Brewers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 -115 | +105 |
| Twins | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 -105 | -125 |
Brewers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+14.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+11.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+9.55 Units / 12% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.00 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Twins vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Twins vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -135 |
| Corbin Burnes | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -155 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+10.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 away games (+2.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+1.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+8.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 29-37 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -13.32% ROI).
- 34-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -3.84% ROI
- 27-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.05 Units / -17.86% ROI
- 36-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.2 Units / 8.59% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 33-33 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -2.47% ROI).
- 33-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -8.38% ROI
- 27-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -17.31% ROI
- 36-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.7 Units / 9.24% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 66% of the time (225/340) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 78.7 MPH on changeups since last season (82 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 86.4
28 of Corbin Burnes’ 75 strikeouts (37%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 63% of the time (700/1,116) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 54% (333/623) of the time since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 29% (92 SO in 322 PAs) this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 32% (119/372) against Pablo Lopez this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has an ERA of 5.86 (35.1 IP) at home this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.41 — seventh Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Brewers are 28-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Brewers are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Brewers are just 2-27 (.069) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Brewers are 25-2 (.926) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Twins are just 7-22 (.241) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-29 (.326) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Twins are 27-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (648 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Brewers hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters have been successful in 180% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Twins are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .218 (1,389 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Twins pitchers put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Ribs, D10
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Lat Strain, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Neck, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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