- The Brewers are -105 favorites vs the Yankees
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Milwaukee Brewers (-105) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-115) on Friday, September 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Brewers vs Yankees Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 77-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 68-72 ATS.
Brewers vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -115 | -105 |
| Yankees | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -105 | -115 |
Brewers vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+13.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+10.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+10.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+9.45 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+12.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 83% ROI)
- Everson Pereira has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.70 Units / 70% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+8.10 Units / 58% ROI)
Yankees vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Yankees vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Colin Rea | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 away games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.18 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.48 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 77 games (+10.83 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.54 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.69 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+5.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 65-74 against the Run Line (-13.4 Units / -7.68% ROI).
- 77-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.6 Units / 3.82% ROI
- 62-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.8 Units / -10.98% ROI
- 71-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 2.02% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 68-72 against the Run Line (-7.3 Units / -4.21% ROI).
- 70-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.3 Units / -6.68% ROI
- 63-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.25 Units / -10.54% ROI
- 72-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 1.78% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of 1.097 (90 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .742 — second Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to July 2nd — Kenta Maeda has the longest active streak at 9.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 53% (84/160) against Colin Rea this season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 88th Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .219 (16 Total Bases / 73 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .447 — 99th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .630 (109 Total Bases / 173 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .429 — second Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed an OPS of 1.028 (192 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .751 — second Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .660 (173 Total Bases / 262 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .507 — second Percentile.
Luis Severino has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 2 double plays in 65 opportunities (3%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 11% — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Brewers are 17-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Brewers are 18-36 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Brewers are 32-10 (.762) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
The Brewers are 36-25 (.590) after a loss this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are just 8-47 (.145) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Yankees are 71-25 (.740) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Yankees are just 1-59 (.017) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .233 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Brewers are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .355 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .228 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,128 of their 5,137 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Yankees are batting just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Yankees hitters have drawn 265 walks in 2,604 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Yankees pitchers have walked 25 of 468 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 7 of 215 batters (3%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keynan Middleton (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D10
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
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