- The Braves (46-34) are -175 favorites vs the Cardinals (44-37)
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Dakota Hudson (6-4), 3.82 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (9-4), 3.03 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The St. Louis Cardinals (+145) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-175) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Cardinals vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cardinals are 44-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 41-39 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -135 | O 9.5 -120 | +145 |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | U 9.5 +100 | -175 |
Cardinals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 56.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+8.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+6.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 away games (+6.40 Units / 88% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 45 of his last 66 games (+25.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 41 of his last 68 games (+17.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 43 of his last 66 games (+17.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 44 of his last 65 games (+15.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+14.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Braves vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -600 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Dansby Swanson | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Braves vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Wright | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -130 |
| Dakota Hudson | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+8.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 58 games (+5.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 games (+1.95 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 54 games (+19.82 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 30 games (+12.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 47 games (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 68 games (+6.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+6.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 45-36 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 6.57% ROI).
- 44-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -0.47% ROI
- 40-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -1.29% ROI
- 37-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -7.68% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 41-39 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -1.5% ROI).
- 46-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.16% ROI
- 41-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.99% ROI
- 36-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.2 Units / -10.44% ROI
Dakota Hudson: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 56% (365/656) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 58% (761/1,302) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 59% (201/343) when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 70% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (77/120) against Dakota Hudson this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Wright had a first-pitch strike rate of just 37% (10/27) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Kyle Wright has allowed a slugging percentage of just .245 (46 Total Bases / 188 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .351 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 30% (71/233) against Kyle Wright this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 89th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% (126/240) against Kyle Wright this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 91st Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Cardinals are 37-1 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .920.
The Cardinals are 24-16 (.600) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Cardinals are 18-4 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Cardinals are 27-5 (.844) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Braves are 39-11 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Braves are just 1-28 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 187 extra-base hits out of 429 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have 214 extra-base hits out of 501 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .462 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,862 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have 220 extra-base hits out of 509 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .738 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Braves hitters have 92 extra-base hits out of 200 total hits (46%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .470 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have walked 73 of 718 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 201 of 2,137 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
- McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Génesis Cabrera (Cardinals): COVID-19, D10
- Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Illness, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
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